Clinton wins PA, but Omaba still leads

April 23, 2008 7:31:49 PM PDT
Hillary Clinton has the momentum, but Barack Obama still has the lead. On Wednesday, both camps are spinning the Pennsylvania primary as they move on to Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks.

It's the fourth time that Barack Obama has had a chance to win the Democratic nomination. It's like movie Ground Hog Day, where the same thing keeps happening.

In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton scored well with women, the elderly, and the less educated, more conservative so called lunch bucket Democrats.

Barack Obama scored better with younger voters, people making more than $50,000 a year and better educated, more liberal democrats.

Sound familiar? It should says ABC7 political analyst Professor Bruce Cain.

"What's really amazing about this is the outcome in Pennsylvania is almost eerily similar to the outcome in Ohio seven weeks ago," says Cain.

In fact, Cain says the dynamics haven't changed much in since February.

"All the numbers, in terms of white men white women. All the demographics that we've been looking at for the last three months, they're constant."

That is not what the candidates want you to believe.

"The tide is turning," says Clinton.

Maybe, but the path to the nomination proves to be a difficult one for Clinton. And for Obama, he still has not been able to bring her supporters to his side.

"The Democratic Party is gonna' recognize, as soon as we have a nominee, that there is too much at stake for us to be divided," says Obama.

Obama's campaign insists he's getting stronger.

"He did better with white men. He's doing better with those groups which are supposed to be core Clinton supporters," says Obama supporter Tony West.

But Tony West made those comments Tuesday night before the final count showed Clinton margins were wider than the exit polls suggested. On the other side, Clinton's supporters still say she's more electable.

"These working class Democrats are key if this is a competitive election when you get to the fall with Senator McCain, those types are working class voters are going to be the key. They're the key swing voters in the key swing states." says former Clinton White House Advisor Chris Lehane.

That's the Clinton campaign's argument to superdelegates.

But ABC7's political analys says if Hillary Clinton is to get the nomination, she has to win the delegate race, which is very unlikely, or she has to win the popular vote.

"Particularly, when the match up polls are showing that Barack Obama does as well, or perhaps better, than she does against John McCain, so really, she needs another breakthrough, and that would be to take the lead in popular votes."

For Clinton and Obama the vote in Indiana looks to be the tie breaker. It could be the end of this ground hog day campaign.


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