Super Tuesday probably won't settle much

March 5, 2012 8:51:32 PM PST
On the eve of the biggest day of the Republican race, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are battling each other for Super Tuesday's biggest prize.

Californians will likely have a say in this Republican primary because the party decided delegates should be awarded proportionally rather than winner take all. That means that no matter who wins the contests Super Tuesday contests, the candidates will split the delegates and in states where the vote count is close, the delegates pretty evenly split.

Of the 10 state's voting on Super Tuesday, Ohio is the biggest and Romney is surging in the buckeye state. He's been outspending Santorum by more than 10 to 1.

The Stanford University Communications Lab has been compiling the political ads that have been airing in the primary and caucus states.

Santorum said Monday the fact that he's even close in Ohio shows that Romney can't seal the deal with conservatives.

But when the contest winds down to California will the Republicans still be pushing the same messages? ABC7 political analyst Bruce Cain doesn't think so.

"First of all I think it's very unlikely that anybody but Mitt Romney on the Republican side is going to have enough money to spend in California," Cain said.

The Bay Area and Los Angeles are two of the most expensive media markets in the country. Cain says Romney will have to pick and choose his targets.

"I would see him focusing very much on perhaps the housing problems in California, on the high unemployment levels," Cain said.

In the general election, Romney knows turning California into a red state is extremely unlikely. But his strategy may be to try and soften up that support.

"The more he can get Obama to spend in states like California, then it makes it harder for Obama to spend in swing states," Cain said.


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