'I'm truly undecided': What key Senators are saying ahead of Brett Kavanaugh vote

Thursday, October 4, 2018

Key senators who will likely determine the Kavanaugh vote

As the FBI report into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh arrives for senators to review ahead of Friday's vote, key swing votes have yet to declare their intentions.

brett kavanaugh, kavanaugh hearing, joe manchin, brett kavanaugh news, senate judiciary committee, lisa murkowski, susan collins, jeff flake, judge kavanaugh, dianne feinstein, chuck grassley -- An initial vote has been set for Friday on whether to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump's nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court.

With most of the Senate having declared their intentions, all eyes are on just five Senators.

How we got here

On Sept. 27, the Senate Judiciary Committee had hearings during which they heard testimony from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who described an alleged sexual assault by Kavanaugh when they were both in high school. During his testimony later in the day, Kavanaugh vehemently denied the allegations.

The next day, Kavanaugh's nomination was sent through to the full Senate for a vote. Each of the committee's 10 Democrats voted against sending the nomination on, while each of the committee's 11 Republicans voted to send it on. Sen. Flake, the deciding vote, asked for an investigation before the full Senate vote. The FBI has been conducting that investigation this week, and a report has now been sent to Capitol Hill for senators to review.

How many votes does Kavanaugh need?

If Kavanaugh gets 51 votes or more, he would be confirmed.

If there is a 50-50 tie, Vice President Mike Pence would be the tie-breaker.

Most of the 51 Republican senators are expected to vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Most of the 47 Democrats are expected to vote against the confirmation. Both independent senators have said they will vote no. There are, however, a few outliers.

Key senators in the vote

Yet to announce

There are three Republicans who have not yet made their intentions public ahead of the vote. After Trump mocked Ford's testimony this week at a rally, all three have spoken out against the president's comments.

Jeff Flake, R-Arizona

At the Senate Judiciary Committee meeting, Sen. Flake was the deciding vote on whether the committee would send the nomination to the Senate floor. After first saying he'd support Kavanaugh, Flake said later in the day that he thought the matter needed further investigation by the FBI. He voted yes to send the nomination onward, but called for an investigation to last no more than one week before the full-Senate vote.

As for the president's comments about Ford's testimony, Flake called them appalling.

"To discuss something this sensitive at a political rally is just, um, it's just not right. It's just not right. I wish he hadn't have done it and just say it's, it's kind of appalling," he said.

Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska

Sen. Murkowski, who has been known to cross party lines, criticized the president's comments about Ford's testimony, calling them "wholly inappropriate and in my view unacceptable."

She has not yet announced how she will vote.

Susan Collins, R-Maine

Like Sen. Murkowski, Sen. Collins is known as a moderate Republican whose vote is uncertain.

"The president's comments were just plain wrong," she said of his mocking of Ford's testimony.

Sen. Collins also said that she supports the decision to have the FBI investigate before the vote.

Heidi Heitkamp, D-North Dakota

Complicating the vote are Democrats who are up for re-election in red states. Heitkamp would have incentive to vote to confirm Kavanaugh in order to garner more support back home, FiveThirtyEight reports. She has not yet declared how she plans to vote.

Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia

Manchin is another Democratic Senator who is up for re-election in a red state. He called for the FBI investigation not to be hurried "so that our country can have confidence in the outcome of this vote." He applauded the "courage" of Flake for calling for the FBI to investigate.

"I'm looking at a little bit of everything. I'm trying to put the human side to it," Manchin told reporters. "I'm undecided, I'm truly undecided."

Former key senators who have announced their intentions

Bob Corker R-Tennessee

Corker, who's retiring from the Senate, has been known to criticize those in his party who he believes are too concerned with pleasing the president, so he was earlier considered a swing vote.

After the hearings on Thursday, he announced his support of Kavanaugh.

Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Indiana

Though experts originally said Donnelley may support Kavanaugh since he is from a red state and up for re-election, he made a statement against Kavanaugh on Friday.

The Associated Press and FiveThrityEight contributed to this report.

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