Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette are the exception, not the rule

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- For three years, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and LSU's Leonard Fournette caused panic each time they stepped onto the field. Earlier this month, they caused panic with their decisions to prematurely end their college careers.

In choosing not to play bowl games, Fournette and McCaffrey triggered a trend that surely would poison the soul of college football and destroy the sport's historic bowl system. A mass exodus of players was inevitable, and non-New Year's Six bowls would go belly up. McCaffrey and Fournette had made quitting OK, and college football would surely suffer the consequences. And if you got a lousy Christmas gift, it was their fault, too.

One little fact went largely ignored in the cloud of panic: They're both running backs.

Not just running backs, but running backs dealing with injuries. Running backs who had combined for 1,248 career carries at Stanford and LSU. In McCaffrey's case, add 99 career receptions, 56 career kick returns and 34 career punt returns. Those types of numbers are not mentioned to celebrate their excellence or endurance. The math surrounding running backs with NFL potential is dramatically different than it is for any other position. The higher the number, the closer a running back is to the end of his career. It's the law of diminishing running backs.

So here's another number for those expecting McCaffrey and Fournette's decisions to ravage rosters for future middling bowl teams.

One.

"For the most part, [running backs are] one-contract players in the NFL," said Phil Savage, executive director of the Senior Bowl and a former NFL general manager, scouting director and coach. "The other positions, for the most part, you hope when you draft them that they're two-contract players or three.

"That makes it a little different with the running backs."

The numbers say most NFL-caliber running backs aren't long for the sport, even if they make it through their final bowl games unscathed. For McCaffrey and Fournette, that is Friday's Hyundai Sun Bowl (Stanford) and Saturday's Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (LSU). By sitting out, they save their bodies a few more blows, which may or may not help them in the long run. But the context surrounding their decisions -- proven college backs over multiple seasons with plenty of carries and no character questions -- cannot be ignored or understated.

No group of NFL prospects has their touches and hits tracked quite like running backs.

"The other place where you may raise an eyebrow is if there's a linebacker who has a zillion tackles," Savage said. "Now people are looking into, 'He's had 485 career tackles, how many concussions has he had?' But the running back is probably unique in terms of actually trying to determine how much wear and tear might be on that player."

Will other college running backs with NFL aspirations (real or imagined) follow McCaffrey and Fournette in the coming years and skip mid-tier bowls? Definitely. Baylor's Shock Linwood, who skipped the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl despite a murky NFL forecast, is a good example. (Sources said personal reasons factored into Linwood's decision.)

But will three players cause a spike in bowl skipping? Probably not.

An NFL scout said it would have been much more alarming if Carson Wentz had sat out last year's FCS national championship with North Dakota State, or if Jared Goff hadn't played in Cal's bowl game. If healthy running backs like Florida State's Dalvin Cook sat out a New Year's Six game like the Capital One Orange Bowl, there would be more concern.

Right now, this is niche discussion -- not a real trend -- impacting only a handful of players at one position.

"I think it's going to apply somewhat to the players who have had maybe not a healthy final year, they're nicked up, in a lesser bowl game," Savage said. "I can't imagine this list ever growing more than four or five players a year, maybe even at the most.

"I don't think you're going to see a mass exodus."

The two starting running backs preparing for the College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl both disagree with McCaffrey and Fournette's decisions. Clemson's Wayne Gallman and Ohio State's Mike Weber both talked about finishing what you start alongside "your family" and "your brothers."

But there also is understanding within the running back fraternity. Weber, a redshirt freshman, acknowledged dealing with several injuries this season, while logging 177 carries and 20 receptions.

"It always depends on the tread in the tires," Weber said. "Running backs take a lot of beating, especially the really good ones that take a lot of carries. It takes a toll on you. I understand why [they're skipping the bowls], but I still think that you should finish up your college career the right way."

When Stanford takes the field Friday without McCaffrey, and LSU follows Saturday without Fournette, feel free to be outraged and offended. It's your right. But just know what you're getting all worked up about.

Running backs.