Where are the top NBA free agents going? Our experts predict

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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Where are [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6450/kawhi-leonard" ]Kawhi Leonard[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3202/kevin-durant" ]Kevin Durant[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6442/kyrie-irving" ]Kyrie Irving[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6475/klay-thompson" ]Klay Thompson[/url] heading in [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/nba-free-agency/" ]NBA free agency[/url]? Will the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks" ]New York Knicks[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/bkn/brooklyn-nets" ]Brooklyn Nets[/url] or [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/lac/la-clippers" ]LA Clippers[/url] be able to land two max stars?[br /][br /]The signings can officially begin at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, and so far there's little certainty about how this [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27015402/how-nba-draft-sets-league-altering-free-agency" ]potentially league-altering offseason will shake out[/url].[br /][Ads /][br /]Our ESPN Forecast panel predicts the destinations for the top players and which franchise will be the title favorite when the summer is over.[br /][br /][b]More:[/b] [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26914752/2019-nba-free-agency-latest-buzz-news-reports" ]Latest NBA free-agency buzz[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0531/r550119_2_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]On which team's roster will Kevin Durant be next season?[/h2][br /]Durant is likely to miss most or all of next season after suffering a ruptured right Achilles in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, making his offseason move even more unpredictable.[br /][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26024501/predicting-nba-superstar-moves-kd-kyrie-ad-kawhi" ]In the February edition of these predictions[/url], the Knicks were clear favorites. Now it's a toss-up, with the[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors" ]Golden State Warriors[/url]having a slight edge.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27047210/warriors-talk-future-kd-klay-week" ]Warriors to talk future with KD, Klay this week[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0623/r560819_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]On which team's roster will Klay Thompson be next season?[/h2][br /]Like Durant, Thompson is expected to miss a large chunk of 2019-20 after tearing the ACL in his left knee during the NBA Finals. Both players are still projected to [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26976159/gm-says-warriors-outlook-klay-kd-unaffected" ]command max offers in free agency despite the injuries[/url], and our panel is unanimous in predicting Thompson will return to Golden State.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26975993/ten-warriors-free-agency-trade-targets-help-replace-kd-klay" ]Ten free-agency and trade targets for Warriors[/url][img ALT="Insider" SRC="https://assets.espn.go.com/icons/in.gif" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0606/r553096_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Where will Kawhi Leonard play next season?[/h2][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26930463/who-kawhi-leonard" ]The NBA Finals MVP is tough to read[/url], but our panel now predicts a[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/tor/toronto-raptors" ]Toronto Raptors[/url]return as most likely. In February, the Clippers got 66.7% of the vote.[br /][br /]Wherever he ends up, pay attention to the number of years on Leonard's next contract. [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26993250/the-latest-intel-loaded-free-agent-market" ]A two-year deal (maybe with a player option)[/url]would let him hit the market again with 10 years of service, and he then would be able to earn significantly more long-term money.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[i][/i][/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/25760020/which-nba-teams-chase-superstar-free-agents" ]Which NBA teams can chase superstar free agents?[/url][img ALT="Insider" SRC="https://assets.espn.go.com/icons/in.gif" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0414/r529184_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Where will Kyrie Irving play next season?[/h2][br /]The[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/bos/boston-celtics" ]Boston Celtics[/url]have gone from favorites to keep Irving in February to out of the running in these predictions [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26702069/kyrie-irving-failed-leadership-tells-story-celtics-failed-season" ]following a disappointing season[/url].[br /][br /]Now Brooklyn is the front-runner for the All-Star point guard.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27046224/busy-week-ahead-ainge-recalibrating-celtics" ]'Busy week' ahead for Ainge, recalibrating Celtics[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2018/1119/r465866_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][Ads /][br /]Where will [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6479/kemba-walker" ]Kemba Walker[/url] play next season?[/h2][br /][i][b]Update (June 27):[/b]After these predictions were made, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27066586/sources-celtics-frontrunners-sign-kemba" ]ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported[/url] that the the Celtics have emerged as the frontrunner to sign Walker once free agency opens on Sunday.[/i][br /][br /]Walker has said that the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/cha/charlotte-hornets" ]Charlotte Hornets[/url] are his first priority in free agency and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26965007/kemba-take-less-stay-hornets" ]he would consider taking less money[/url] if it helped build out the rest of the roster.[br /][br /]Walker will receive interest from plenty of other teams with point guard needs, though no clear favorite has emerged to recruit him away from Charlotte.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27044148/biggest-nba-free-agency-trade-decisions-all-30-teams" ]Biggest NBA free-agency and trade decisions for all 30 teams[/url][img ALT="Insider" SRC="https://assets.espn.go.com/icons/in.gif" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2018/0913/r430633_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Where will [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3213/al-horford" ]Al Horford[/url] play next season?[/h2][br /]Horford is expected to leave Boston after talks on a long-term deal fell apart, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27004042/sources-horford-seek-deal-boston" ]according to a report[/url] by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.[br /][br /]The[url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks" ]Dallas Mavericks[/url]are the favorites here, with Horford joining the dynamic core of [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic" ]Luka Doncic[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3102531/kristaps-porzingis" ]Kristaps Porzingis[/url] (if he returns in restricted free agency).[br /][br /][i]Others receiving votes: Brooklyn Nets, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder" ]Oklahoma City Thunder[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/phx/phoenix-suns" ]Phoenix Suns[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz" ]Utah Jazz[/url][/i][br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27015402/how-nba-draft-sets-league-altering-free-agency" ]How the NBA draft sets up a league-altering free agency[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0617/r558021_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Will the 76ers re-sign their big midseason additions?[/h2][br /]In February, keeping [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6440/tobias-harris" ]Tobias Harris[/url] but losing [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6430/jimmy-butler" ]Jimmy Butler[/url] was the top choice at 63.9%. Since then, Butler's clutch showing in the postseason has made him look crucial to the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-76ers" ]Philadelphia 76ers[/url]' offense.[br /][br /]The [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets" ]Houston Rockets[/url] will make a run at recruiting Butler for a sign-and-trade, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27054891/rockets-eyeing-sign-trade-butler" ]according to a report[/url] by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, though even if Butler is interested the cap mechanics there are complex.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26993250/the-latest-intel-loaded-free-agent-market" ]The latest intel on this loaded free-agent market[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0205/r498037_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Who is the next best free-agent target?[/h2][br /][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6609/khris-middleton" ]Khris Middleton[/url] and [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3136776/d'angelo-russell" ]D'Angelo Russell[/url] get the nod here.[br /][br /]Middleton was essential to the [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-bucks" ]Milwaukee Bucks[/url]' earning the league's best regular-season record, and the Bucks won't have many ways to replace him if he walks. Russell enters restricted free agency, but Brooklyn will need to renounce his rights to add two max players.[br /][br /][i]Others receiving votes: [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3064514/julius-randle" ]Julius Randle[/url], [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6478/nikola-vucevic" ]Nikola Vucevic[/url][/i][br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27036889/2019-nba-free-agent-rankings-top-30-players-potential-fits" ]2019 NBA free-agent rankings: Top 30 players and potential fits[/url][img ALT="Insider" SRC="https://assets.espn.go.com/icons/in.gif" /][br /][Ads /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0621/r559847_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]How many max-contract players will the Knicks add in the offseason?[/h2][br /]The Knicks cleared room for two stars in the Porzingis trade, with Durant pegged as the favorite to take at least one of those max slots prior to his injury. Now the Knicks appear to be total wild cards.[br /][br /]If New York can't land the top free agents,all indications are that the team will pursue short-term deals, [url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27037915/kyrie-dangelo-how-brooklyn-handle-difficult-decision" ]according to a report[/url] by ESPN's Zach Lowe.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27015407/the-nba-draft-best-riskiest-most-surprising-moves" ]The NBA draft's best, riskiest and most surprising moves[/url][img ALT="Insider" SRC="https://assets.espn.go.com/icons/in.gif" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2018/1113/r463126_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]How many max-contract players will the Nets add in the offseason?[/h2][br /]The Nets have telegraphed their intention to pair Irving with a second superstar, and Durant has been widely assumed to be that star, according to Lowe's report.[br /][br /]Our panel predicts Brooklyn gets at least one star -- and maybe two.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27037915/kyrie-dangelo-how-brooklyn-handle-difficult-decision" ]Kyrie or D'Angelo? How Brooklyn might handle a difficult decision[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0421/r532297_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]How many max-contract players will the Clippers add in the offseason?[/h2][br /]The Raptors winning the title -- seemingly increasing their odds to keep Leonard in Toronto -- likely shifted these L.A. predictions.[br /][br /]The Clippers were projected in February to have an 86.1% chance to land at least one star, but that's down to 66.7% now. Still, those are strong odds at improvement for a team that took a healthy Warriors squad to six games in the playoffs.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27037033/how-clippers-make-their-anti-pitch-kawhi-leonard" ]How the Clippers can make their anti-pitch to Kawhi Leonard[/url][br /][br /][img SRC="https://a.espncdn.com/i/infographics/20170710_nfl_fpr/charts/_end_rule.png" /][br /][br /][img SRC="https://secure.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2019/0526/r547947_1296x518_5-2.jpg" /][br /][br /]Which team will be the 2019-20 NBA title favorite when the season begins?[/h2][br /]With Kawhi expected to return, the Raptors take this one. Their Eastern Conference finals foes from Milwaukee are a close second.[br /][br /][b]MORE:[/b][url TARGET="_blank" HREF="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20229609/nba-free-agents-team-team-lists-2019-2020" ]NBA free agents: Team-by-team lists for 2019 and 2020[/url][br /][br /][i]Image credits (in order of appearance): Ezra Shaw/Getty Images; Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images; Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images; David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images; Greg M. Cooper/USA Today; Michael Reaves/Getty Images; Paul Sancya/AP Photo; Michelle Farsi/NBAE via Getty Images; Noah K. Murray/USA TODAY Sports; Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images; Jesse D. 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