The first 10 days we have not seen a single drop of rain. Storms continue to dodge us with the storm track well to our north.
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The reason being high pressure is anchored right off of our coastline. It deflects storms away from the Bay Area and is unlikely to move into next week.
In fact the National Weather Service tweeted Monday that the Arctic Oscillation hit a record value today.
The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO https://t.co/YWilD9lYGu pic.twitter.com/84Vc1pzSnH— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) February 10, 2020
Simply, whenever the Arctic Oscillation is in positive territory in the winter, warmer and drier weather is often forecast along the West Coast.
That value hit a record positive value today meaning it is unlikely we will see this pattern change to a stormier one in the near future.
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Rainfall deficits are running well over 6" for much of the Bay Area this storm season.
The Climate Prediction Center is betting our dry pattern will stay in place through the third week of February, forecasting below average rainfall through the 24th.
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