Forty percent of respondents to the statewide nonpartisan survey, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, said they support a recall. The other 5% remain undecided.
Support for removing the governor from office is highest in the Central Valley and Inland Empire areas.
The governor's approval rating has held steady at about 54%, the same as before the coronavirus pandemic began.
Newsom, a first-term Democrat, launched his anti-recall campaign earlier this month. He is painting the effort as a partisan attack by pro-Trump Republicans on the state's progressive values.
Voters will first be asked whether Newsom should be recalled then to choose from a separate list of candidates to replace him. The votes on the second question will only be counted if more than half of voters say Newsom should be removed.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.