NFC divisional playoffs: Everything you need to know about Vikings vs. 49ers
The Minnesota Vikings travel to the San Francisco 49ers for an NFC divisional playoff game Saturday (4:35 p.m. ET,NBC).
Matchup rating: 82.3 | Spread: SF -7 (44)
What to watch for: These teams tied for fifth in sacks (48) this season while finishing in the bottom 10 in blitz percentage. In other words, they both can create pressure while relying solely on their defensive fronts. And quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo (64.9 passer rating) and Kirk Cousins (61.0 passer rating) both had their struggles when under duress in 2019. -- Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: This game will be decided on the final possession. Minnesota and San Francisco might be the most evenly matched teams in the postseason, both with dominant run games and defensive line play. And while the Vikings are coming off a 26-20 OT win in the wild-card round, every 49ers game since Week 13 has been decided by a play in the final 10 seconds, including three on the last play. That trend continues Saturday with a nail-biting finish. -- Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Expect plenty of play-action on Saturday. Garoppolo had NFL-best 1,670 passing yards off play-action in 2019, while Cousins led the NFL with 13 play-action passing touchdowns.
Key matchup: 49ers tight end George Kittle vs. split-safety coverage. Look for Niners coach Kyle Shanahan to create open voids and defined throws for Garoppolo versus the Vikings' zone coverages. That leads to catch-and-run opportunities for Kittle, who averaged 7.2 yards after the catch during the regular season. Think crossers and in-breakers here. Read more.
Betting nugget: Since 2014, San Francisco is 1-12-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of at least six points (9-5 outright), including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Garoppolo is the 10th quarterback to make his postseason debut for a No. 1 seed under the current playoff format, and the previous nine are 4-5 outright and 2-7 ATS. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee Walt Anderson's regular-season crew led the NFL in flags per game (18.8), but fortunately both the 49ers and Vikings finished among the NFL's 10 least-penalized teams. This could be Anderson's final game on the field, but his name has surfaced as a candidate for a new job as the NFL's vice president of officiating training and recruitment.
Cronin's pick: Vikings 28, 49ers 25
Wagoner's pick: 49ers 27, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: SF, 66.1% (by an average of 5.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings' Kyle Rudolph's game-winning gloves to benefit charity after all ... Why the 49ers have unwavering faith in the unflappable Jimmy Garoppolo ... 49ers defense can return to dominance with improved health
