Super Bowl LIV betting trends to know

The Super Bowl is the biggest singular gambling event on the calendar every year. Here are some of the top trends and storylines to keep an eye on in Super Bowl LIV.

Super Bowl betting history

Over the last six seasons, favorites and underdogs have alternated winning and covering in the Super Bowl. Last season, New England won as a 2.5-point favorite.

Underdogs have covered in 12 of the last 18 Super Bowls, going 11-6 against the spread under the current playoff format (since 2002).

Each of the last 10 seasons, the winner has also covered the spread. The last time the winner did not cover the spread was in Super Bowl XLIII (2008 season), when Pittsburgh won 27-23, but Arizona covered as a 5.5-point underdog.

AFC teams have covered five of the last seven Super Bowls. AFC teams were favored in each of the last three Super Bowls, five of the last six and 14 of 17 entering this year. Immediately prior to that, from 1983 to 2001, NFC teams were favored in 15 of 19 Super Bowls.

This is the eighth Super Bowl with a point spread below 3 (2.5 or less). The only title games with spreads of 1 were in 2014 (New England -1 vs. Seattle) and 1981 (Cincinnati -1 vs. San Francisco). No Super bowl has closed at pick'em.

In the last 25 seasons (since 1995), there have been 18 Super Bowls where one team won more games than the other. The team with fewer wins is 15-2-1 ATS in those games. Kansas City won fewer games than San Francisco this season.

In the previous 10 seasons, five Super Bowls were played between two teams with at least 12 wins. The underdog won four of the five games outright.

There have been 10 Super Bowls with totals in the 50s. The under is 7-2-1 in those games, including last year's game finishing 13-3 with a total of 56.

Five of the last seven Super Bowls have gone over the total.

When the point spread has been between +3 and -3, the over is 5-2 since 2000.

In the last 20 seasons, 12 Super Bowl MVPs have played quarterback, four have played defense and four have played wide receiver. No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Denver's Terrell Davis in XXXII (1997 season).

Six of the last 10 Super Bowls have featured a wide receiver scoring the first touchdown of the game. Two of the last three seasons, a running back did it, including Sony Michel last season. Defensive lineman Malik Jackson scored the first touchdown in Super Bowl 50 (2015). No tight end has caught the first touchdown of a Super Bowl since L.J. Smith in Super Bowl XXXIX (2004). No quarterback has scored the first TD since Ben Roethlisberger in Super Bowl XL (2005).

Kansas City Chiefs

This is Kansas City's third appearance in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs won outright as 11-point underdogs in Super Bowl IV and failed to cover as 14-point underdogs in Super Bowl I.

Kansas City has covered eight straight games, the second-longest cover streak by any team entering the Super Bowl. They covered those games by an average of 7.0 points per game, the fifth-highest mark during a cover streak of at least eight games.

The previous seven teams to enter the Super Bowl on cover streaks of at least seven straight went 3-2-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Overall, Kansas City is 13-5 ATS this season. That's the best cover percentage by a team entering the Super Bowl since 2016 New England was 15-3 ATS. That New England team won and covered in the Super Bowl. Overall, teams with ATS winning percentages as good as Kansas City's (72%) are 9-5 ATS in title games against teams with lower ATS winning percentages.

Andy Reid is 21-8 ATS in his career when having at least 12 days to prepare, including 2-0 this season.

Kansas City is 21-11-2 ATS under Andy Reid when the line is between +3 and -3.

The over is 10-2 in games where Patrick Mahomes faces a team that won at least 10 games during the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers

This is San Francisco's seventh Super Bowl appearance. It is 5-1 outright and 4-2 ATS previously. This is likely the second time it will be an underdog; it won as a 1-point underdog in 1981 over Cincinnati. Each of the 49ers' last three appearances went over (over is 4-2 overall in their Super Bowl appearances).

San Francisco is 11-6-1 ATS under Kyle Shanahan when the line is between +3 and -3, including 5-0 ATS this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 9-2 ATS and 8-3 straight up in his career as an underdog. However, one of those losses came last season against Kansas City, when the Chiefs won 38-27 as 6-point favorites.

Garoppolo is also 9-2 ATS in his career when facing a team that won at least 10 games during the regular season (8-3 outright). The over is 7-3-1 in those games.

San Francisco is 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog.

San Francisco is the 15th team to win its divisional round and conference championship games by at least 17 points each. Two played each other in Super Bowl XXXVII; the other 12 teams are 8-3-1 ATS.

San Francisco is 1-9 outright and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 postseason games as an underdog.

San Francisco is the third team to reach the Super Bowl after winning four or fewer games the previous season. St. Louis pushed as a 7-point favorite in 1999, while Cincinnati lost but covered in 1988.

Odds and ends

If either team falls behind early, betting on the team that is behind could be profitable. This season, Mahomes and Garoppolo are a combined 7-1 after trailing by at least 10 points. The rest of the NFL is 29-208-1 (.124).

Kansas City has been outscored by 14 points in the first quarter this season, while San Francisco has a plus-47 scoring margin in the quarter. However, the Chiefs have a plus-142 scoring margin in the second quarter, by far the best in the NFL. San Francisco is second at plus-84.

Five of the last six coin tosses have come up tails.

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