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As buildings go, the Transbay Transit Center is huge. It is longer than the Transamerica Pyramid is high. When it opened in 2018, there were high hopes that that it would serve as the new economic roadway for commuters from all around California. But add the COVID-19 pandemic and a change in worker habits and you have to ask -- will the Transbay Transit Center ever live up to expectations?
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Maybe.
For years, it was the vision of the new San Francisco. This was the place, the hub, the Grand Central Station of the West. At least, that's what the thought was. It was to be a place where a hundred thousand people a day would be walking over murals as they went in and out of the city from here all the way to Los Angeles.
"That's right," said Adam Van De Water, executive director of the Transbay Joint Powers Authority, the agency that oversees the transit center.
He added, "I mean, this is generational infrastructure. We are replacing a transit terminal that was built in 1939, and here we are in 2023. So we built this for the next several generations of use. We've connected it to eight transit providers. We're a block from BART and the Market Street corridor as a ninth and we're working to connect Caltrain and high speed rail through the downtown rail extension."
There is a lot of ambition there. A lot of good points. But at the same time, we've had the COVID pandemic. We've had remote work. We've had retail shutdowns in the core of the cities. And those mass transit systems you were talking about aren't doing nearly the number of passengers that they were doing a couple of years ago. And the projections of them doing more are pretty slim.
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"Yeah, no question," Van De Water said. "Our transit operators are not experiencing the same ridership and without the same ridership are not getting the same fare box recovery."
So what happens when you take the masses out of mass transit? Will it even survive?
"Well, there's a real challenge for our operators in the coming years as we struggle to kind of get to a new normal," Van De Water said. "San Francisco, as you know, more than most, is an area that has been about invention, reinvention, and innovation. And it's continually changing. We are going through one of those change periods now, and it's very difficult on our commercial property owners and really our transit providers."
The transit providers have gone to the governor and said we need a billion dollars a year in order to not go over the financial cliff. So far, he's saying no. So it could get even tighter and fewer people on mass transit.
"Well, one of the things is that we've always known and regardless of the topic area is change is difficult," Van De Water said. "And we'll go through some difficult periods like you described. But we need to keep investing in the future because we know that in order for people to take transit, it needs to be clean, it needs to be regular, it needs to go where they want to go."
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But in the massive second story bus bay, where the commuter buses are supposed to be rolling in regularly, it doesn't look like the hub of a lot of transit.
"Well, here we are today in the middle of the day on on Monday," Van De Water said. "So this tends to be an a.m. and a p.m. peak use right here. And we've seen through work from home that the hybrid work model today is consolidating around the middle of the week: Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday."
The result is that the buses are only carrying about 40% of the pre-COVID passengers load.
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The Transbay Transit Center was built with the hopes of linking San Francisco to Los Angeles with a new high speed rail system. Below the Grand Hall and Bus Decks is a two-level train station has been built to house high-speed trains and link an electrified Caltrain from 4th and King streets to downtown. If the system was fully funded, trains could be stopping in San Francisco in 2033.
"This was part of the long term vision of the Transbay Program," Van De Water said. "We're walking on the mezzanine ticketing level, and just below us are six rail three platforms and six rail lines for Caltrain and high speed rail. That'll bring about 100,000 passengers here when it's complete."
And how much is that going to cost?
"The downtown rail extension, or what we call the portal, will connect this center to the existing Caltrain alignment," Van De Water said. "Seventy-seven miles to south of San Jose that will go fully electric next year. And we need to bring the last mile and a half, two miles of construction, to get those trains into the basement here."
And how much is that expected to cost?
"That project is about $6.9 billion," Van De Water said. "And we are about three quarters of the way funded now and working towards a full funding grant agreement to start that construction. And a little over two year time."
Back above ground, there are some signs the transit center may make it.
"Our operating revenues come from a couple of sources. And we're happy to say that this center is almost 90% leased," he said. "Just in the last quarter, we've opened three restaurants. And at the end of last year, we opened the taproom in the park that's become quite an evening destination. So our sales tax revenues have actually outpaced those of the rest of the city because of that activation."
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The activation does rely on commuters, but it's not solely reliant on them. We also have 15,000 residents down here and we have international visitors discovering our architecture in our park.
That massive park on the top of the center gives you a window on what this neighborhood has, or could, become. Tree-lined pathways amid a concrete style jungle, surrounded by empty offices where workers only come a few days a week, and residences for those who choose to live here.
The terminal is also the center of this entire new neighborhood. That we are surrounded with that came up with this transit center that includes the Salesforce Tower here, which is one of the new icons of the city and the other office buildings which now are at a pretty high vacancy rate. People just aren't coming into them like they used to.
"Where we're seeing that vacancy is moving from our older buildings downtown into our new ERs, the newer ones. Do you happen to be down here because this is the newest part of downtown? So some of these have a lot of activity, more so as I mentioned on the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, part of the week with the hybrid work schedule," Van De Water said.
"It's interesting you point that out because we opened in 2018. Here we are five years later in 2023 and we've yet to have a normal 12 month period of operations. So we've had robust ridership and then we closed for the fisher of Fremont Street reopened had that robust ridership again and then we went into a global pandemic," Van De Water said.
With the pandemic's end, there is some hope San Francisco will emerge to that "new normal" we keep hearing so much about.
"I think we're in for a period of change and that period of change is not going to be solely office financial districts and solely residential bedroom communities, but a hybrid in both directions. And so the Trans Bay District, more than most of downtown has been that vision for decades. We have 15,000 residents here today, and those are the ones who are frequenting our park and our retail and keeping it alive. Even with transit service lower than projected right now. So do I see this fulfilled? I do. I think they will be a mix. We'll have a more diversity in our tax base. It won't be just one or two industry and we'll have more residential and more have more retail. I think the long term projection and the long term vision is still there that people want activated walkable, beautiful, robust communities, whether they be downtown or elsewhere, and I think this is one of those visions," Van De Water said.
Two years. That's what transit experts and City leaders are saying it will likely take to flush out the current downturn in the Financial District. Workers they say will come back. The key to that recovery will be to diversify the mix of jobs.
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It comes down to housing. San Francisco housing prices continue to be high. That means if you are going to want to work downtown, you're going to have to commute. And with parking also at a premium, that leaves you with only one option: public transit.
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The transit providers have gone to the governor and said we need a billion dollars a year in order to not go over the financial cliff. So far, he's saying no. So it could get even tighter and fewer people on mass transit.
"Well, one the thing is that we've always known and regardless of the topic area is change is difficult. And we'll go through some difficult periods like you described. But we need to keep investing in the future because we know that in order for people to take transit, it needs to be clean, it needs to be regular, it needs to go where they want to go," Van De Water said.
But in the massive second story bus bay, where the commuter busses are supposed to be rolling in regularly. It doesn't look like the hub of a lot of transit.
"Well, here we are today in the middle of the day on on Monday," Van De Water. So this tends to be an a.m. and a p.m. peak use right here. And we've seen through work from home that the hybrid work model today is consolidating around the middle of the week. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday."
The result is that the buses are only carrying about 40% of the pre-COVID passengers load.
The Transbay Center was built with the hopes of linking San Francisco to Los Angeles with a new high speed rail system. Below the Grand Hall - and Bus Decks, a two-level train station has been built to house high-speed trains and link an electrified CalTrain from 4th and King Streets to downtown. If the system was fully funded, trains could be stopping in San Francisco in 2033.
"This was part of the long term vision of the Trans Bay program. We're walking on the mezzanine ticketing level, and just below us are six rail three platforms and six rail lines for Caltrain and high speed rail. That'll bring about 100,000 passengers here when it's complete," Van De Water said.
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And how much is that going to cost?
"The downtown rail extension, or what we call the portal, will connect this center to the existing CalTrain alignment. 77 miles to south of San Jose, that will go fully electric next year. And we need to bring the last mile and a half, two miles of construction to get those trains into the basement here," Van De Water said.
"That project is about $6.9 billion. And we are about three quarters of the way funded now and working towards a full funding grant agreement to start that construction. And a little over two year time," Van De Water said.
Back above ground, there are some signs the transit center may make it.
"Our operating revenues come from a couple of sources. And we're happy to say that this center is almost 90% leased. Just in the last quarter, we've opened three restaurants, and at the end of last year, we opened the taproom in the park that's become quite an evening destination. So our sales tax revenues have actually outpaced those of the rest of the city because of that activation," Van De Water said.
The activation it does rely on commuters, but it's not solely reliant on them. We also have 15,000 residents down here and we have international visitors discovering our architecture in our park.
That massive park on the top of the center gives you a window on what this neighborhood has - or could - become. Tree-lined pathways amid a concrete jungle, surrounded by empty offices where workers only come a few days a week, and residences for those who choose to live here.
The Terminal is also the center of this entire new neighborhood. That we are surrounded with that came up with this transit center that includes the Salesforce Tower here, which is one of the new icons of the city and the other office buildings which now are at a pretty high vacancy rate. People just aren't coming into them like they used to.
"Where we're seeing that vacancy is moving from our older buildings downtown into the newer ones," Van De Water said. "They happen to be down here because this is the newest part of downtown? So some of these (buildings) have a lot of activity, more so as I mentioned on the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, part of the week with the hybrid work schedule."
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The transit center may have opened in 2018 but has yet to have a full 12 months of operating without a crisis. First there were delays opening, then there was crack found in a steel beam that closed the center, then the pandemic hit.
"It's interesting you point that out because we opened in 2018. Here we are five years later in 2023 and we've yet to have a normal 12 month period of operations. So we've had robust ridership and then we closed for the fisher of Fremont Street reopened had that robust ridership again and then we went into a global pandemic," Van De Water said.
With the pandemic's end, there is some hope San Francisco will emerge to that "new normal" we keep hearing so much about.
"I think we're in for a period of change," he said. "And that period of change is not going to be solely office financial districts and solely residential bedroom communities, but a hybrid in both directions. And so the Transbay Transit District, more than most of downtown, has been that vision for decades. We have 15,000 residents here today, and those are the ones who are frequenting our park and our retail and keeping it alive. Even with transit service lower than projected right now. So do I see this fulfilled? I do. I think they will be a mix. We'll have more diversity in our tax base. It won't be just one or two industries. And we'll have more residential and have more retail. I think the long-term projection and the long-term vision is still there that people want activated walkable, beautiful, robust communities, whether they be downtown or elsewhere, and I think this is one of those visions."
Two years. That's what transit experts and City leaders are saying it will likely take to flush out the current downturn in the Financial District. Workers, they say, will come back. The key to that recovery will be to diversify the mix of jobs.
It comes down to housing. San Francisco housing prices continue to be high. That means if you are going to want to work downtown, you're going to have to commute. And with parking also at a premium, that leaves you with only one option: public transit.