NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, schedule, odds, fantasy tips

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is here! The first kickoff weekend is full of intriguing quarterback showdowns and new team debuts for Jared Verse, Tua Tagovailoa, David Montgomery, Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins, among others. We have Josh Allen vs. C.J. Stroud. We have Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor. And we have Packers vs. Vikings and Cowboys vs. Giants.

We're here to get you ready for the action. First, our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know. Then, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, NFL analyst Ben Solak gives one reason to tune into each game (and rates the watchability of the matchup), fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel and betting analyst Pam Maldonado providesbetting insight. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) game projections, and Maldonado, Moody and Walder all give us final score picks for every game.

Let's get into the full Week 1 slate, which culminates with "Monday Night Football" matchup between Denver and Kansas City on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless noted, and all odds are via Draftkings.)

Jump to a matchup:

BUF-HOU | BAL-IND | TB-CIN

NO-DET | CHI-CAR | ATL-PIT

CLE-JAX | NYJ-TEN | GB-MIN

WSH-PHI | ARI-LAC | MIA-LV

DAL-NYG | DEN-KC

Previously played:

NE-SEA | SF-LAR

What ESPN Analytics says ...

Bills at Texans

1 p.m. ET | CBS | BUF -1.5 (44.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Bills: Buffalo's reimagined defense has an idea of what to expect from the Texans' offense. "We expect multiple different personnel groupings and for them to try and run the ball," edge Bradley Chubb said. "You look at their offseason additions, they let it be known what they want their offense to be." He's talking about the Texans signing RBDavid Montgomery and TEFoster Moreau and selecting a guard and a tight end in the first two rounds of the draft. What Buffalo's defense will look like under first-time coordinator Jim Leonhard is one of the key early storylines in the AFC. -- Dan Graziano

What we're hearing on the Texans: Safety Jalen Pitre said Houston has to "keep [Bills quarterback Josh Allen] from playing backyard football." But in reality, Allen playing backyard football plays right into Houston's advantage. In the past two matchups against Allen, he is 13-of-34 for 201 passing yards with two interceptions and nine sacks when he holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Texans' five-game home win streak is tied with the Rams and Seahawks for the longest active streak in the NFL. A win would tie their longest home win streak in franchise history, including the playoffs. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bills WR DJ Moore will be held to two or fewer receptions. Perhaps Buffalo's newest playmaker will deliver at some point this season. But I don't think it will be against Derek Stingley Jr. or Kamari Lassiter. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 8.8. The Texans and Bills played a great game in primetime last season -- the Texans were victorious on the back of a passionate defensive outing as backup quarterback Davis Mills did just enough to win 23-19. I bet we see a vengeful Allen (eight sacks, two picks) this time. -- Solak

Injuries: Bills | Texans

Fantasy nugget: Allen finished with just 8.1 fantasy points in their meeting last season. Houston also gave up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs in 2025. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: Texans unders are 33-18 under DeMeco Ryans, the second-highest rate since 2023 (Chiefs, 34-17). The Texans can pressure Allen and keep numbers in coverage, and Buffalo also consistently started slow despite its offensive abilities. The matchup points toward longer drives and fewer possessions. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Texans 20, Bills 17

Moody's pick: Texans 23, Bills 20

Walder's pick: Bills 24, Texans 17

FPI prediction: BUF, 54.5% (by an average of 1 point)

Matchup must-reads: Big energy, big reward? Brady is full of caffeine and confidence ... Texans' Stroud confident ahead of the biggest season of his life

Ravens at Colts

1 p.m. ET | CBS | BAL -3.5 (47.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Ravens: This is QBLamar Jackson's first game with new OC Declan Doyle, but the two-time NFL MVP is familiar with Colts DC Lou Anarumo, who was the longtime coordinator with the Bengals. Jackson has excelled in his past four games against Anarumo's defenses, throwing 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, while averaging 258.5 passing yards. "He does a pretty good job of being able to keep you off-balance and attack you," Doyle said of Anarumo. "It's very similar to how we try to attack defenses." -- Jamison Hensley

What we're hearing on the Colts: Indianapolis enters with significant personnel changes on defense and at least five new starters. How it all comes together, against a Baltimore offense with prolific potential, is anyone's guess. "Anybody would be curious on how everything's going to shake out," said DTDeForest Buckner, who returns after season-ending neck surgery in 2025. "But all that matters is the trust that you build ... and the chemistry that you build on the field." -- Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Ravens averaged 24.9 points (11th in the NFL) and 333.2 yards (16th) in 2025 -- their fewest YPG in any season since 2017. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor will record four or more receptions. Last season, no team ran more zone coverage than the Chargers under then-defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Now, he's coaching the Ravens. And RBs record receptions against zone at a much higher rate than against man. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 8.6. There's a lot of intrigue in this one. What does the Minter/Doyle braintrust look like in Baltimore? Just how healthy are QB Daniel Jones and WR Alec Pierce? And there should be plenty of points.-- Solak

Injuries: Ravens | Colts

Fantasy nugget: Zay Flowers is dangerous from both the slot and the outside, and the Colts gave up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs last season. Doyle is incorporating more under-center formations and play-action to maximize Jackson and Flowers, which could lead to more chunk plays. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Colts are 3-14-1 ATS (against the spread) in Week 1 since 2008. The Colts' defense was already one of the league's worst at preventing opponents from moving the ball, and now it has to deal with Jackson, plus an upgraded pass rush on the other side with edgeTrey Hendrickson. Indianapolis has offensive upside, but Jones is returning from an Achilles injury.Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Ravens 27, Colts 21

Moody's pick: Ravens 30, Colts 20

Walder's pick: Ravens 21, Colts 14

FPI prediction: BAL, 59.8% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Ravens' Henry is driven to rank among NFL's best backs ... Colts' Pierce (ankle) expected to play in Week 1 ...QB Jones has one box left to check in dramatic return

Buccaneers at Bengals

1 p.m. ET | Fox | CIN -3.5 (50.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Buccaneers: Coach Todd Bowles called playing QB Joe Burrow a "cat and mouse game" because he is so good at recognizing coverages. "He is outstanding at seeing what you're in." All the more reason they're hoping their remade pass rush -- with first-round draft pick Rueben Bain Jr., free agents A'Shawn Robinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad, along with standout DTVita Vea -- can handle business up front and Bowles can keep as many resources as possible on the backend. Bowles is particularly excited about what they have on the edge. "I feel like I don't have reserves for the first time," he said, feeling as if he can bring any one of them in on any down. -- Jenna Laine

What we're hearing on the Bengals: Sunday marks the debut of a new and improved Bengals offense. Cincinnati spent the offseason using Burrow under center more in hopes of making the offensive scheme more diverse. "I have an idea and a sense of what I want it to look and feel like over the totality of a season," OC Dan Pitcher said. "I think if we hit benchmarks that we have for ourselves internally over the long haul, it's going to pay dividends." -- Ben Baby

Stat to know: Burrow is 12-3 against NFC teams since he lost Super Bowl LVI against the Rams, which is the third-best interconference record among quarterbacks since 2022 (behindJalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin Jr. will be targeted 10 or more times. Emeka Egbukasat out time in the preseason because of a toe injury, and Mike Evans is gone. At least in the short term, I could see targets consolidating around Godwin. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 7.7. This matchup features two teams expecting big defensive improvements facing two offenses that can pour points on when everyone is healthy. Does this still count as a QB Baker Mayfield "everyone doubted me!" campaign now that he has agreed to abig extension? Either way, I'd like to see him (and Egbuka) healthy. -- Solak

Injuries: Buccaneers | Bengals

Fantasy nugget: RB Bucky Irving is set to lead a backfield that now includes Kenny Gainwell and Sean Tucker. Even though Gainwell might cut into Irving's work as a receiver out of the backfield, Irving is still projected to lead the team in touches behind a healthy offensive line. The Bengals gave up the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Buccaneers went 0-9 ATS in their final nine games last season. Burrow hasJa'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, while the Bucs' defense was already struggling to get pressure without blitzing and lost Jamel Dean this offseason. That's a bad look against a QB like Burrow, who can find the open man when you send extra rushers. Cincinnati's rebuilt defense should also be better. Tampa's ATS slide could easily carry into Week 1. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Bengals 24, Buccaneers 17

Moody's pick: Bengals 26, Buccaneers 19

Walder's pick: Buccaneers 27, Bengals 23

FPI prediction: CIN, 60.1% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: What extending QB Mayfield means for the Bucs ... QB Burrow in it for 'long haul' with Bengals ...RB Brown won't be overlooked in Bengals' offense

Saints at Lions

1 p.m. ET | Fox | DET -7 (50.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Saints: QBTyler Shough knows the stakes have been raised in his second season, especially now that he has been named a captain. It'll be especially important for Shough and the Saints to get off to a fast start with their first two games on the road. But Shough said the new expectations don't faze him. "There's so many different things that can happen and so many different things in the offseason that have happened. ... Expectations are going to change, but we have high expectations for ourselves." -- Katherine Terrell

What we're hearing on the Lions: All-Pro lineman Penei Sewell has fully transitioned from right to left tackle this offseason, which he says he's comfortable with entering Week 1. "Oh yeah, it's time to go now," Sewell told ESPN. Lions QB Jared Goff hasn't noticed a difference in Sewell's production on the opposite side, which he hasn't played on a full-time basis since college at Oregon (2018-19). "I think we take it for extreme granted that he was able to go over there and nothing really changed. I think he loves it," Goff said of Sewell. "Left is the premier position in football, and I think he loves that pressure and loves being the guy at the point of attack in a lot of ways." -- Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Saints have lost six straight games in the month of September, which is the longest active streak in the NFL and fourth-longest streak in franchise history (longest since a nine-game streak from 2014 to 2017). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Lions' defense will score a touchdown. The Saints ranked 29th in pass block win rate last season, and Shough ranked 27th in sack-to-pressure ratio. Add in that the Lions are strong favorites, and I think that screams strip-sack-returned-for-a-touchdown. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 7.1. This is a good early test for the Saints, who had one of the best defenses down the stretch of last season. The Lions should be highly explosive on offense again, especially now that RB Jahmyr Gibbs is uncontested in the backfield. -- Solak

Injuries: Saints | Lions

Fantasy nugget: Goff has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game indoors since arriving in Detroit. This matchup also has shootout potential when you look at the total, and the Saints allowed nine quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdown passes against them last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Lions are 14-4 ATS in September under coach Dan Campbell. The Saints improved, but Shough's late-season surge in 2025 came against weaker defenses. Now he gets a healthier Detroit defense on the road, while the Lions' loaded offense should put immediate pressure on New Orleans to keep pace. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Lions 31, Saints 17

Moody's pick: Lions 33, Saints 20

Walder's pick: Lions 27, Saints 13

FPI prediction: DET, 73% (by an average of 6.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: DE Jordan (hamstring) to miss opener vs. Lions ... Respectful Lions eager to tangle with Saints in opener ... Fantasy outlook for Saints? Etienne, Johnson and rookie WRs

Bears at Panthers

1 p.m. ET | Fox | CHI -3 (46.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Bears: Braxton Jones was named the starting left tackle for Chicago's opener, his fifth straight Week 1 start. That's an accomplishment Jones is particularly proud of, given his path as a fifth-round pick along with how he bounced back from a knee injury in camp. Coaches said Jones grabbed hold of the position during their joint practice with Tennessee, but that doesn't mean Theo Benedet won't get playing time. "It's a real strong possibility," OL coach Dan Roushar said. "We have a lot of confidence. Both of those guys have started in Week 1 games and we've won games with them as starters. We have a lot of confidence in their ability to get the job done." -- Courtney Cronin

What we're hearing on the Panthers: The Panthers expect to use rookie nose tackle Lee Hunterin a prominent role. The rookie was named the starter between veterans Derrick Brown and Bobby Brown III on the unofficial depth chart Tuesday. When asked about the starting job Wednesday in the locker room, Hunter -- who says he is avoiding social media -- was unaware of his spot on the depth chart, saying he didn't know the team released one. Coach Dave Canales said Hunter's placement within the trenches is partially based on his summer performance but also out of "necessity" with Tershawn Wharton(neck) on the physically unable to perform list. -- Mike Kaye

Stat to know: The Panthers have lost four straight season openers, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, behind Tennessee's five. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bears WR Kalif Raymond will record at least four receptions. Rome Odunze (calf) is banged up. Luther Burden III (groin) sat out a lot of camp. Do you know who is a wily veteran who can be available for some layups underneath? Raymond. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 7.2. The Bears were must-watch television last season, but the Panthers are a fairly sleepy opponent with which to open the 2026 season. If and when RBJonathon Brooks(general soreness) makes his return from injury, the Panthers will get a watchability boost. -- Solak

Injuries: Bears | Panthers

Fantasy nugget: Tetairoa McMillan faces a Bears defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points per game to WRs and the third-most touchdowns. Chicago gave up nearly three more fantasy points than usual to opposing No. 1 receivers last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Bears have been road favorites only once since 2022 (-2.5 at the Bengals last season), but there are reasons to like them in Carolina. The Panthers' improvement last season came with a favorable schedule and a lot of close-game success. Now QB Bryce Young goes from facing one of the easiest pass-defense schedules to the second-hardest, including this Chicago team that excelled at takeaways in 2025. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Bears 27, Panthers 17

Moody's pick: Bears 24, Panthers 21

Walder's pick: Bears 21, Panthers 20

FPI prediction: CHI, 60.2% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads:The QB-OC partnership that could define the Panthers' season ... Bears' offseason party is over as toughest schedule looms ... Panthers banking on RBs Hubbard, Brooks despite injury histories

Falcons at Steelers

1 p.m. ET | Fox | PIT -3.5 (42.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Falcons:Whomever ends up under center for Atlanta this weekend will have a safety net in the form of All-Pro running back Bijan Robinson, who led the NFL with 2,298 scrimmage yards in 2025. There is a saying in the Falcons quarterback room that if anything goes wrong "just Beej it" -- in other words, just give the ball to Robinson. "That phrase has taken on a life of its own in the room," offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said.-- Marc Raimondi

What we're hearing on the Steelers: Two of the Steelers' three preseason games were at Acrisure Stadium, but that won't make coach Mike McCarthy's regular-season debut as coach of his hometown team any less emotional. "I think the fact that being from here -- this is heavy being here," McCarthy said. "... I have tremendous amount of pride in not only being from here, but what the Pittsburgh Steelers stand for and the responsibility that myself and everybody has to this organization and really to the players and coaches before us." -- Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Including the playoffs, new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski was 6-7 against the Steelers as the Browns coach from 2020 to 2025. Cleveland won 13-6 against the Steelers in his last meeting in Week 17. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction:Falcons RT Jawaan Taylor will post a pass block win rate under 75% (average is 90%). Against the Steelers edge rushing trio of Alex Highsmith, T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig, I expect Taylor to struggle on what might be the few plays on which Atlanta actually holds the ball for at least 2.5 seconds.-- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 3.1.Cooper Rushcould be starting a game in 2026. What do you want from me?-- Solak

Injuries: Falcons | Steelers

Fantasy nugget: DK Metcalf has a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that gave up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to WRs last season and struggled against receivers on the outside. Metcalf finished outside of the top 20 at the position in targets, receptions and receiving yards in 2025, but this is a good spot for him to start 2026 strong. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Steelers have covered five straight meetings against the Falcons. That streak could continue because Atlanta's offense is still transitioning under Stefanski, while its front seven projects to be one of the worst in the NFL after losing several contributors. The latter issues should create a manageable matchup for Rodgers' quick passing game with Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Steelers 20, Falcons 13

Moody's pick: Steelers 27, Falcons 20

Walder's pick: Steelers 19, Falcons 16

FPI prediction: PIT, 59.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tagovailoa suffers oblique injury in practice... QB Rodgers: Steelers' 4-QB room is first of 22-year NFL career ...The story behind the Steelers' viral field blessing: 'God doesn't pick sides'

Browns at Jaguars

1 p.m. ET | CBS | JAX -8.5 (39.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Browns: The Todd Monken era begins in Cleveland, and Deshaun Watson is back at QB, making his first start since tearing his Achilles in October 2024. Watson has played only 19 games in four seasons with the Browns, and his QBR (33.1) would rank the lowest among qualified QBs. But Monken has preached optimism about tapping into the dual-threat capabilities that made Watson a three-time Pro Bowl pick with the Texans. "We can do a lot of different things," Watson said. "We have a lot of different guys that are very talented and that can get the ball in their hands." -- Daniel Oyefusi

What we're hearing on the Jaguars: Rookie third-round pick Emmanuel Pregnon has won the starting job at left guard, and the Jaguars are excited about the impact he could have on the run game, which is one of the team's biggest questions. "He's a finisher," coach Liam Coen said of the 6-foot-5, 318-pounder. "He's a people mover in ways you can't teach, the size and strength and ability to stay connected to people. [He] has a lot to learn and will grow a ton throughout this season but excited about maybe being able to run at him in ways too." -- Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: Despite the Jaguars going 3-1 in September last season, the month has not been kind to QB Trevor Lawrence. It's statistically the worst month of his NFL career with a .333 win percentage since 2021. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Edge Jared Verse will record a sack in his Browns debut, albeit in a losing effort. Verse was the forgotten piece of the Myles Garrett trade, but he's a heck of an edge and should be a productive player for the Browns for seasons to come. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 5.3. The Browns will be a watchability pit all season (save for the weeks in which they make QB changes, I suppose). The Jaguars were super watchable late in 2025, as Lawrence started pushing the ball downfield more. If Jacksonville can keep that up, it'll play in some highly watchable games quickly. -- Solak

Injuries: Browns | Jaguars

Fantasy nugget: RB Quinshon Judkins handled 71.4% of the Browns' designed rush attempts last season but averaged just 3.6 yards per carry while facing plenty of stacked boxes. Cleveland's QB situation is still a concern in 2026, and Week 1 doesn't help. Jacksonville gave up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs and the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns to the position last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: Unders are 13-6 when Watson starts for the Browns, which should mean Cleveland's best path will still be through defense, even without Garrett. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's run game remains its biggest offensive question and could stall drives. Expect another lower-scoring Watson game. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Jaguars 26, Browns 13

Moody's pick: Jaguars 26, Browns 16

Walder's pick: Jaguars 20, Browns 10

FPI prediction: JAX, 76.9% (by an average of 7.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: One thing Watson has to improve to remain Browns' starting QB ... Expectations for Jaguars' Coen, QB Lawrence in 2026 ... Monken, QBs, the Browns and a lifetime in pursuit

Jets at Titans

1 p.m. ET | CBS | TEN -1.5 (38.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Jets: New York has a new QB (Geno Smith) and new playcallers on offense (Frank Reich) and defense (Aaron Glenn), which creates an air of mystery. They will try to use that to their advantage, hoping to surprise the Titans with unscouted looks. A key to the game will be how Smith handles the Titans' four-man rush; 16 of his league-high 17 interceptions last season with the Raiders came against four-man rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Rich Cimini

What we're hearing on the Titans: Tennessee's defense is fueled by a front that revolves around DLsJeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers. Getting after Smith, who was intercepted 17 times in 2025 and forcing turnovers will be critical in this game. Coach Robert Saleh is confident in his defensive duo will get the job done,"I'm biased, I think it's one of the best combinations of interior D-linemen in all of football"-- Turron Davenport

Stat to know:Smith last started a game for the Jets on Oct. 23, 2016 (3,612 days ago). When he starts Sunday, it would be the third-longest span between QB starts for a franchise since starts were first tracked in 1950. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Jets OT Armand Membou will record a 100% pass block win rate. The Titans' interior pass rush could be a problem. But Membou should have the upper hand against (ex-Jet!) edge rushers Jermaine Johnson II and Jacob Martin, plus rookie Keldric Faulk. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 3.4. This might end up a close game, but I can't imagine it will be a pleasing one. Saleh's revenge game against the Jets (where he coached from 2021-2024) is the biggest narrative here. A strong sophomore start for QB Cam Ward would be fun, too. -- Solak

Injuries: Jets | Titans

Fantasy nugget: The Titans' secondary remains a concern heading into 2026, which is good news for Garrett Wilson. Wilson has topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three healthy seasons. In five healthy games in 2025, before his knee injury, he averaged 9.6 targets and 19.0 fantasy points. Tennessee also gave up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Jets have covered five straight meetings against the Titans (5-0 ATS), and that shouldn't change Sunday, despite New York being 1.5-point underdogs. Tennessee could be better overall this season, but with systems changing on both offense and defense, I don't expect everything to click in Week 1. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Jets 17, Titans 13

Moody's pick: Jets 16, Titans 13

Walder's pick: Jets 26, Titans 20

FPI prediction: TEN, 58.4% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: WR Wilson calls ending Jets' playoff drought 'very realistic' ... Titans' Gray in concussion protocol after UTV accident ... Can QB Smith rewrite his narrative in return to Jets? ... Titans OL eyes more aggressive mindset this season

Packers at Vikings

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | MIN -1.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Packers: There's a bunch of firsts and unknowns for the Packers this week. It's the first game with Jonathan Gannon as DC and Cam Achord as the special teams coordinator. Perhaps even more unknown is kicker Trey Smack. The rookie made every kick in three preseason games, including three 50-plus yard field goals, but had some shaky training camp practices including days with multiple misses. "Whether it's Week 1, Week 18, whatever it may be, he's going to miss," Achord said. "And I think what's good about him is you saw on his college tape, his college film, he didn't let one miss lead into another and [did not] spiral downhill." -- Rob Demovsky

What we're hearing on the Vikings: When receiver Justin Jefferson last had game action, he was pushing through a meaningless Week 18 game just to surpass the 1,000-yard receiving mark amid the NFL's fourth-worst play by QBR. As he returns Sunday to U.S. Bank Stadium, Jefferson is confident that new QBKyler Murray will reignite the passing offense. "Everybody knows what he does running the ball," Jefferson said "But him being able to throw the ball into spots before the receiver even turns around ... it's really cool to see him anticipate some of those throws." -- Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: The Vikings have won four of the past five home games against the Packers dating to 2021 (lone loss: 33-10 in Week 17 of 2023). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Packers will post a positive pass rate over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This would be notable because coach Matt LaFleur tends to (overly) rely on the run game and recorded a minus-6% pass rate over expected last season (ranked 26th highest). But given how efficient Green Bay often is at passing the ball and that it will be without RB Josh Jacobs (commissioner exempt list), the Packers might throw more. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 7.3. Here's a cheeky little divisional tilt in Week 1. The Vikings are one of the most watchable early-season teams, given the new pairing between Murray and coach Kevin O'Connell. The Packers might be a tougher view without Micah Parsons (knee) and with a changing offensive line ... but divisional opponents tend to bring out the best. -- Solak

Injuries: Packers | Vikings

Fantasy nugget:Christian Watsonfaces a Vikings defense that gave up the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs last season. After sitting out the first seven games because of injury, Watson scored 18-plus fantasy points four times but averaged just 7.7 in his other six games. He has struggled against Minnesota in the past, averaging only 4.4 fantasy points in five career meetings, including 9.9 fantasy points in 2025. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight:Murray is 14-21 ATS in his career as a favorite, including 9-15 ATS as a home favorite. But that history shouldn't be scary because this matchup is more about what Green Bay doesn't have in Week 1. The Packers don't have Parsons or an elite offensive line, which led to QBJordan Love being pressured on roughly 40% of his dropbacks last season. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Vikings 24, Packers 17

Moody's pick: Packers 23, Vikings 19

Walder's pick: Packers 27, Vikings 24

FPI prediction: GB, 56.8% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will Matt LaFleur let Packers QB Love cook in '26? ... Will Murray end the Vikings' tragicomic QB history? ... Expectations for Packers RB Lloyd with Jacobs out ... Is Vikings DL Banks healthy and ready to perform?

Commanders at Eagles

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | PHI -6 (44.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Commanders: Washington's offensive line will face a major challenge immediately, facing Eagles' tackles Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. There has been a lot of consternation about Washington's front after left tackle Laremy Tunsil tore his triceps in camp and center Nick Allegrettibeing sidelined for most of camp because of a strained calf. The linemen have heard the outside noise. "Before Laremy went down, we weren't a discussion," guard Sam Cosmisaid. "There wasn't a ton of concern; now we're the worst, now we're this, now we're that. Well, we'll see. That's all I've got to say." Cosmi also noted that three starters Sunday also were starters in 2024 when Washington reached the NFC Championship Game -- with one addition being 2025 first-round tackleJosh Conerly Jr.-- John Keim

What we're hearing on the Eagles: RBSaquon Barkleysays he believes the scheme installed by Sean Mannion this offseason, featuring wide zone blocking and the QB operating from under center more, will "open up some things that I may not have been able to show in my career." The 29-year-old Barkley looked explosive in training camp and will test-drive this new offense against a Commanders team that he has typically done well against, with career highs in rushing yards (1,222) and touchdowns (nine) against Washington. "It's a great offense, we have great coaches, and the guys are buying in. We're excited for this opportunity," he said. -- Tim McManus

Stat to know: The Commanders are the only team in the NFC East to win at Philadelphia over the past four seasons (2-3 record, including the playoffs). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith will record a 40-plus yard reception. We don't know exactly what the Eagles' offense will look like under new OC Mannion, but last season, the Commanders' defense gave up an average depth of target of 8.2, fourth highest in the NFL. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 6.8. I love a divisional showdown in Week 1, and especially one between two shiny young offensive coordinators. David Blough and Mannion were both on teams as recently as 2023. Who will get new systems operating quicker? There's lots of uncertainty in this one -- which is always a good reason to tune in. -- Solak

Injuries: Commanders | Eagles

Fantasy nugget:Dallas Goedert finished last season as the TE7 in fantasy after scoring a career-high 11 touchdowns for the Eagles. Some touchdown regression is likely, but our projections still have him second on the team in targets. The Commanders gave up the second-most fantasy points per game to TEs last season, and Washington didn't do much to improve its secondary this offseason. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight:Commanders QBJayden Daniels is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as an underdog of at least five points, including in the playoffs. All four of those games went over the total, and this matchup could be the same. The Commanders have enough firepower with Daniels' mobility, WRsStefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin to challenge Philadelphia's strong defense. Washington can score enough to extend Daniels' ATS streak and help push another game over. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 23

Moody's pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 21

Walder's pick: Eagles 21, Commanders 13

FPI prediction: PHI, 67.3% (by an average of 4.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Commanders punter Way says he'll retire after season ... Can RB Barkley recapture his 2024 dominance? ... Inside Commanders DC Daronte Jones' unusual coaching journey

Cardinals at Chargers

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | LAC -9.5 (47.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Cardinals: Sunday will be debut of Mike LaFleur's offense and there's quite a bit of optimism floating around Arizona's locker room about the top-end potential of the scheme. A lot of that has to do with the group of skill players the Cardinals will deploy in Los Angeles: WRMarvin Harrison Jr., WR Michael Wilson, TE Trey McBride and RB Jeremiyah Love. That group had QB Jacoby Brissett issuing a warning. "It's like pick your poison," he said. "Everybody that's going to suit up for us is a threat. Teams have got to cover a lot of field and hopefully put that on display Sunday." -- Josh Weinfuss

What we're hearing on the Chargers: Coach Jim Harbaugh and QBJustin Herbert both raved about Cardinals safetyBudda Bakerthis week, noting that Baker will make it difficult for the Chargers offense. "He just finds a way to be around the ball," Herbert said. "And he's definitely a guy you have to be aware of on the field." -- Kris Rhim

Stat to know: The Cardinals have won only once on the road against the Chargers (2001 Week 11). They are 1-7 all time at the Chargers. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Chargers will score 40 points. The first game of the OC Mike McDaniel era coming against the Cardinals? Yes, I'd happily bet on points, points and more points for Los Angeles. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 6.9. The excitement of McDaniel's offense under Herbert's command is reason alone to watch this debut game. The expected low resistance offered by the Cardinals dulls the anticipation some. But they should be able to score points -- we might get ourselves a shootout.-- Solak

Injuries: Cardinals | Chargers

Fantasy nugget: RB Omarion Hampton is well positioned for success in an offense designed by McDaniel. During McDaniel's time in Miami, De'Von Achane finished as a top-five fantasy RB in consecutive seasons. Hampton is projected for 18.0 touches per game and is capable as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. The Cardinals gave up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: Los Angeles has major advantages at QB and on defense, but 9.5 points is a big number for an offense installing a new system under McDaniel -- I don't expect it to click quickly like Walder does. Arizona should be more functional with Love, an improved line, and a run-heavy approach that shortens the game. The Cardinals might struggle to score touchdowns, but they should stay within double digits. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Chargers 20, Cardinals 13

Moody's pick: Chargers 38, Cardinals 20

Walder's pick: Chargers 42, Cardinals 10

FPI prediction: LAC, 80.6% (by an average of 9.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals LaFleur optimistic RB Love plays in Week 1 ... Chargers sign TE Herbert, brother of starting QB ... Sources: Cardinals, WR Wilson reach $75M extension ...

Dolphins at Raiders

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | LV -3 (40.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Dolphins: The Dolphins' initial depth chart of the season listed rookies Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell as two of the team's starting WRs. Coach Jeff Hafley said the rookies "deserve to start and we plan to start them," adding in an interesting caveat -- there will be no snap count for Bell, who returned earlier than expected from a torn ACL suffered in December. Bell played only 13 snaps this preseason, but Miami is excited about his potential and thrilled by his efforts to get himself ready for the start of the season. Beyond Douglas and Bell, Hafley said the Dolphins plan to play "a lot" of the team's rookies Sunday -- including Kadyn Proctor, Jacob Rodriguez and Chris Johnson. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

What we're hearing on the Raiders: Good news, RBAshton Jeanty returned to practice and probably will play Sunday. Bad news, All-Pro TEBrock Bowers is expected to sit out one to two games after undergoing a knee procedure this week. With that said, expect the Raiders to lean heavily on the RB duo of Jeanty and rookie Mike Washington Jr. Controlling the pace of play through their rushing attack will be essential to pulling off a victory at home. -- Ryan McFadden

Stat to know: RBDe'Von Achaneis the only starting offensive skill player from 2025 season openers still on Miami's roster. He led the NFL with 40 rushes of 10-plus yards last season. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Dolphins QB Malik Willis will rush for at least 60 yards. He doesn't exactly have great playmakers to throw to, and Miami might as well maximize the talents of its new signal-caller. If the Raiders are leading and sitting back on defense, they might not mind giving up small runs to Willis late in the game. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 2.1. This probably will be one of the least watchable games of the entire season. I do not want to watch the Raiders until rookie Fernando Mendoza is on the field, and I do not want to watch the Dolphins ... at all. -- Solak

Injuries: Dolphins | Raiders

Fantasy nugget:Jeanty now finds himself in new coach Klint Kubiak's zone running scheme, and even though Kubiak is known for using multiple backs, fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned. The lead back in his offense has averaged 17.6 touches and 14.3 fantasy points. That gives Jeanty a reasonable floor, and his ceiling could be much higher against a Dolphins defense that gave up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs in 2025. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Raiders have not been favored by at least 3.5 points in Week 1 since 2002 (when they were 7-point favorites against the Seahawks). But they should have enough advantages at home to cover against Miami. The Dolphins are rebuilding with Willis at QB, an inexperienced receiving corps, and major questions along the offensive line. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Raiders 23, Dolphins 16

Moody's pick: Raiders 23, Dolphins 13

Walder's pick: Dolphins 20, Raiders 19

FPI prediction: LV, 60.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Young Dolphins embracing underdog mentality in 2026 ... Raiders' RB Jeanty returns to practice after two-week absence ... TE Bowers (knee) to miss at least Raiders' opener

Cowboys at Giants

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | DAL -3 (48.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Cowboys: Christian Parker acknowledges this opening day will be different for him than in the past now that he's a DC. There's an anticipation of what the Cowboys will be after giving up 511 points a season ago. Through trades, free agency and the draft, the Cowboys have revamped their defense. Parker likened the learning process to the players going from getting their undergrad degree in the offseason to a Master's in training camp. "I think it's fair to say graduation day is on Sunday night," Parker said. -- Todd Archer

What we're hearing on the Giants: It's the first game of the John Harbaugh era. It's QBJaxson Dart's first opening game start in the NFL. The Giants say they believe they have their signal-caller and coach and that it will lead to wins. Immediately. "I want to do something special. And all the guys in the locker room are, too. We're starving for this," Dart said. -- Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Cowboys are 16-2 against the Giants since start of 2017, which is tied for the most wins by any team against a single opponent (Patriots, 16-2 vs. Jets). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Giants rookie WR Malachi Fields will lead the team in receiving yards. It remains to be seen exactly how close to 100% Malik Nabers (knee) is. Fields had a great camp and the Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Cobie Durant are beatable. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 6.6. A divisional boost and a new coach boost, as Harbaugh debuts against the rival Cowboys. Dallas' offense should be worth a weekly tune-in this season, and Dart can be a delightful to watch when healthy. -- Solak

Injuries: Cowboys | Giants

Fantasy nugget: Javonte Williams should have the backfield mostly to himself in 2026. The Giants gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to RBs last season, and they traded nose tackleDexter Lawrence IIthis offseason, which could open up more room on the ground. Williams had 17 touches and 25.0 fantasy points against the Giants in Week 2 last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past nine Week 1 games, and those struggles could continue against a Dallas offense that ranked fourth in offensive efficiency last season. New York's defense will also be navigating its first game without defensive tackle Lawrence. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Cowboys 30, Giants 20

Moody's pick: Cowboys 33, Giants 26

Walder's pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 22

FPI prediction: DAL, 58.2% (by an average of 2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Cowboys see DC Parker's youth as an X factor ... Big things expected from Harbaugh's Giants ... S Downs living up to the hype

Broncos at Chiefs

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | KC -2.5 (43.5 O/U)

What we're hearing on the Broncos:Linebacker Alex Singleton was asked if the Broncos expect Chiefs QBPatrick Mahomes(knee) to be to 100%, and he called upon some of his own experience: "Well since I could have played nine months after my ACL [surgery] I'm going to assume he's also going to be able to. I expect him to be him.'' So, that means the Broncos have prepared to see Mahomes operate as he has against them so many times before. In four games against Mahomes since 2023, Broncos DC Vance Joseph's group has held Mahomes to a 55.7 QBR, the lowest for Mahomes against any coordinator he has faced at least four times in that span. -- Jeff Legwold

What we're hearing on the Chiefs: The biggest storyline for Monday's game is the return of Mahomes. But Mahomes will need plenty of help to defeat the AFC West rival. WR Rashee Rice knows such, especially since he's entering the final season of his rookie contract as the Chiefs' projected No. 1 receiving target. Rice wants to have a breakout season, and he was able to get through the Chiefs' grueling training camp after having a surgery on his right knee in May. "Truthfully speaking, I think I'm more in shape than I was [last season]," Rice said Thursday. "I'm more confident in being in the spots that I have to be, as far as being on the same page as [Mahomes] because we're both coming off an injury. We're kind of seeing ourselves get back to our full potential." -- Nate Taylor

Stat to know: The Broncos have won three straight games over Kansas City. That's their longest streak since a seven-game streak from 2012 to 2015 (Andy Reid took over as the Chiefs coach in 2013). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce will record six or more receptions. With the triple threat of Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian at CB for Denver, I could see the Chiefs funneling their targets to the veteran TE over the middle. -- Walder

Viewers rating (out of 10): 7.7. A divisional game that might decide the division after Week 18 is being played in Week 1. The Chiefs' offense could sputter in the absence of left tackle Josh Simmons when facing Nik Bonitto and the tremendous Denver pass rush, but the return of Mahomes is worth undivided attention no matter the state of the offensive line. -- Solak

Injuries: Broncos | Chiefs

Fantasy nugget:Mahomes averaged just 15.0 fantasy points over the six games before his season-ending injury. He might need some time to get back up to speed, and Week 1 against one of the league's best defenses isn't an ideal spot. Denver gave up only 14.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last season. Mahomes also hasn't scored multiple touchdowns in a game against the Broncos since 2022. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody

Betting insight: Each of the past six Broncos-Chiefs meetings went under the point total, and both teams still have reasons to make this game difficult offensively. Denver's defense is bringing back the core of an elite defense that ranked sixth in defensive EPA last season, while its offense was inefficient on early downs and relied heavily on long drives. Read more. -- Maldonaldo

Maldonado's pick: Broncos 16, Chiefs 13

Moody's pick: Broncos 26, Chiefs 21

Walder's pick: Chiefs 23, Broncos 20

FPI prediction: KC, 58.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Broncos' WR Sutton says QB Nix like caged mountain lion ahead of opener ... Chiefs' QB Mahomes expects to play with no limitations in opener ... Touring the Broncos' new $175 million team facility

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