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Futures odds update: Checking chances for Raiders, Michigan ... and Tiger

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook releases updated futures odds across major sports every week. ESPN Stats & Info senior researcher Matt Willis breaks down the biggest changes within the marketplace, including who is moving up or falling back among odds to win championships and major awards.

Super Bowl LI


NFL:New Extremes for Raiders, Panthers

Last Sunday, in one of the most thrilling games of the year, the Oakland Raiders first blew a 17-point halftime lead to the Carolina Panthers, then the Raiders overcame an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 35-32. The game finalized the flipping of these teams in the season odds.

The Raiders improved to 12-1 to win the Super Bowl, the fourth-best in the NFL behind the Patriots, Cowboys and Seahawks. The Raiders' odds have improved for five straight weeks, after being at 25-1 following Week 7.

ESPN's Football Power Index isn't far off, giving the Raiders a 6.9 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, second-best among AFC teams and fifth-best overall. Entering the season, the Raiders were 13th in the NFL to win the Super Bowl, and eighth among AFC teams according to FPI.

Meanwhile, the Panthers' record dropped to 4-7 and their odds are 300-1 to win the Super Bowl. Carolina was as good as 8-1 at one point this offseason, and even rebounded to 40-1 after consecutive wins improved their record to 3-5 on the season.

In the final odds release before the regular season, Carolina had the fourth-best odds to win the NFC. Three of the top four NFC teams now have losing records: the Packers, Cardinals and Panthers.

College Football Playoff


Michigan ahead of Wisconsin and Penn State

Entering conference championship (and end of the Big 12 season) weekend, four teams have separated from the pack for the odds to win the National Championship: Alabama(5-7), Ohio State(2-1), Clemson(6-1) and Washington(8-1).

Michigan, just 5-1 three weeks ago, is now to 20-1, an understandable drop after losses to Iowa and Ohio State, but what's notable is that the Wolverines' title odds are still ahead or tied of both the teams that will play in the Big Ten Championship Game, Wisconsin(20-1) and Penn State(50-1).

This is just the third year of the College Football Playoff. In the first two, all eight teams to make the playoff were conference champions.

FiveThirtyEight's College Football projectionsaren't into Michigan's playoff chances. It gives Michigan just a 1 percent chance to make the playoff, compared to 30 percent for Wisconsin and 21 percent for Penn State.

None of the three are given much of a shot to win the championship (Wisconsin/Penn State 2 percent, Michigan less than 1 percent).

Golf


Tiger's 2017 Outlook

Tiger Woods will make his long-awaited return this week at the 18-player Hero World Challenge. He'll enter that event with 40-1 odds to win, the worst of any player in the field.

That might not seem very hopeful for Tiger's season, but the oddsmakers aren't totally out on Tiger. He's still 40-1 to win the Masters, improving from 50-1 last week. That's better than Brandt Snedeker, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar and last year's champion Danny Willett.

His odds to win any major this year are 12-1. The winner of the last major played, Jimmy Walker at the PGA Championship, is 20-1 to win a major this year.

Part of the reason for Tiger being given these odds is to counterbalance the action that will come just for him being Tiger Woods.
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