Bay Area communities step up flood preps as CA could face 'historic' El Nino winter
CORTE MADERA, Calif. (KGO) -- Climate experts are warning that California could be headed toward a potentially historic winter rainy season as a powerful El Niño continues to strengthen across the Pacific Ocean.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center estimates there is a 69% chance the current El Niño will exceed the strength of all recorded El Niño events dating back to 1950, raising concerns about increased storm activity, flooding, and coastal impacts throughout the state.
"This winter's El Niño event has a pretty high chance of becoming historic," said ABC7 Eyewitness News meteorologist Drew Tuma.
UC climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain says the event is already firmly established and shows no signs of fading before winter.
"Here we go, early August and we have a strong El Niño in place. El Niño is occurring. Check that box," Swain said during a recent update on his Weather West YouTube channel.
Swain described the latest forecast data as extraordinary.
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"The numbers I'm seeing, and other weather people are seeing, are frankly extraordinary," he said. "If they come to pass, they will blow all historical events out of the water."
According to forecasters, confidence has steadily increased since January that unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific will continue to intensify through the fall, helping drive weather patterns that often bring wetter-than-normal conditions to California.
"They have very high confidence those waters will continue to warm into a very strong El Niño category," Tuma said.
While the exact impacts remain uncertain, local agencies around the Bay Area are already taking steps to prepare for possible flooding.
In Marin County, public works crews are participating in so-called "flood fight" training exercises, filling sandbags and practicing levee protection techniques designed to reduce damage from future storms and king tides.
Last January's king tides flooded several low-lying neighborhoods around the county.
VIDEO: Here's what caused the Bay Area's highest king tides since 1998
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"Although we're preparing for El Niño and king tides, the readiness we're building is for flooding events that can happen all year with high tides," said Stephen Torrence, director of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management.
Officials in Corte Madera are also preparing for the possibility of another wet winter.
"We're going to make sure our gutters are clear, our storm drains are clear, and detention ponds are lowered," said Corte Madera Town Council Member Eli Beckman.
Beckman said the flooding that impacted parts of the town earlier this year highlighted the vulnerability of low-lying communities around Richardson Bay and underscored the need for long-term flood-control investments.
"What we saw with flooding in January really illustrated what we're going to see when El Niño sets in," Beckman said. "We're going to see a lot more days like what we saw around the New Year."
Local officials say the preparedness efforts underway now are aimed at minimizing potential impacts should the predicted El Niño-driven storms materialize this winter.
