Betting buzz: Bengals, backers face potential turning point vs. Ravens

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

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Clash with Ravens potential turning point for Bengals and their backers

Doug Greenberg: The first game of the NFL's second half features one division rival looking to continue its ascent and another seeking a victory critical to its playoff hopes.

The Baltimore Ravens' season has mostly gone according to plan thus far. Their odds to win the Super Bowl have shortened from +1000 to +600 since the start of the season at ESPN BET, which is good enough to keep them in the third spot on the odds board, exactly where they were at the start of the campaign.

Baltimore is receiving increasingly more action on their futures as the season progresses, taking 15.6% of the handle to win the Super Bowl and 49.8% of the handle to win the AFC -- second and first in the league, respectively -- since the season began at ESPN BET. DraftKings reports that before the season, the Ravens were the fifth-most-bet team to win the Super Bowl by handle and have since moved up to third.

One big factor in their ascendance is offseason acquisition Derrick Henry, who has emerged as the odds-on favorite for Offensive Player of the Year (-140 at ESPN BET). BetMGM told ESPN the superstar running back has been its most-bet player for props this season, racking up more touchdown-scorer prop wagers than any other player through nine weeks.

It's also worth noting QB Lamar Jackson is the current favorite (+275 at ESPN BET) to win his third MVP award and second in a row.

Things don't look as rosy on the other side of the ball. The Cincinnati Bengals' season got off to a very rocky start, as they lost their first three games, causing their odds to make the playoffs to plunge from -250 at open to +125 after the 0-3 start, per BetMGM.

They finally returned to negative odds (-105) after manhandling the middling Las Vegas Raiders last week, capping off a stretch that saw them win and cover in three of their past four games. Still, the damage has been done for the Bengals' chances to win the AFC North, let alone the Super Bowl. Per DraftKings, Cincinnati and Baltimore actually began the season tied in odds to win the division (+145), but the latter is pulling away, showing -165 odds to the former's +900. The Bengals fell from +1300 to +4500 to win this season's championship.

Thursday night's contest is crucial for the Bengals if they're going to turn things around for themselves and their backers, but there are some factors working against them.

Since the beginning of last season, the Ravens are 3-0 against the spread versus their division rival, which includes a narrow cover in Week 5, and ESPN Analytics gives them a 70.4% chance to win on "Thursday Night Football" (a projected win by 8.1 points). ESPN Analytics also gives the Bengals just a 3.6% chance to win the AFC North and a 37% chance to make the playoffs.

Reassessing NFL futures halfway through the season

Doug Greenberg:With Week 9 in the books, the NFL has officially reached its halfway point, and teams are making cases to be true contenders. Chief among them is the Detroit Lions, who are living up to most of their lofty expectations and are leading the NFC North (7-1).

The Lions entered the campaign tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1100 but have seen those odds shorten all the way down to +450, second on the odds board behind only the Kansas City Chiefs (+375) at ESPN BET. Detroit is also the clear favorite to win the NFC at +185, leading the San Francisco 49ers,next-closestat +500.

Dan Campbell's squad got to this point through its impressive play, but the Lions have also been responsible for some of the hottest future tickets on the market. ESPN BET reports that the Lions have garnered a league-leading 15.2% of bets and 21.9% of handle to win the Super Bowl, as well as a conference-leading 27.4% of bets and 47.1% of handle to win the NFC since the season kicked off Sept. 5.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have attracted comparatively little action since the start of the season, getting 10.7% of the tickets and 12% of the handle for the championship, and 17.9% of tickets and 33.8% of handle. That said, Kansas City has been very popular on a week-to-week basis, taking the most handle overall for spread and moneyline bets, according to DraftKings.

Another popular futures option has been the Baltimore Ravens, who have remained in the third spot on ESPN BET's odds board despite shortening from +1000 to +600 since the start of the season. Baltimore has the second-most bets (11.2%) and handle (15.6%) at ESPN BET since Sept. 5, and the most to win the AFC (25.6% bets, 49.8% handle).

Wild, wild NFC West

The 49ers entered the 2024 season with high championship expectations after narrowly falling to the Chiefs in the last Super Bowl, showing the second-best odds at +600. However, a somewhat disappointing start now has them sitting at +850, fifth on ESPN BET's odds board, with relatively little public support.

Part of San Francisco's problem is the very strong division around them. Every team in the NFC West currently has plus-odds to win the division title, with the 49ers at +110, the Arizona Cardinals at +200, the Los Angeles Rams at +375 and the Seattle Seahawks at a more distant +1200. Arizona tops the division standings at 5-4, but Seattle is only a game behind in last place at 4-5, with San Francisco and Los Angeles both in the middle at 4-4.

There tends to be a division like this every NFL season. Last year, the AFC North had all teams at +1200 or shorter to win the division at this time of the season, with the AFC North and AFC West both claiming that distinction in 2021, and the NFC West in 2020, according to ESPN Research.

The odds for the 2024 NFC West may look the way they do based on power ratings and strength of schedule. ESPN Analytics gives the Cardinals a 43% chance to win the division with the 30th ranked remaining strength of schedule, while the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks all have remaining schedule difficulties in the league's top 11.

That said, it's L.A. that has been receiving a lot of bettor attention to win the division, taking in a leading 46.1% of bets and 41.1% of handle since the start of the campaign. BetMGM also identifies the Rams as its biggest division liability.

Next comes Seattle for both metrics, then Arizona who has actually taken more wagers than San Francisco to this point.