Betting buzz: Reassessing NFL futures halfway through the season
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Reassessing NFL futures halfway through the season
Doug Greenberg:With Week 9 in the books, the NFL has officially reached its halfway point, and teams are making cases to be true contenders. Chief among them is the Detroit Lions, who are living up to most of their lofty expectations and are leading the NFC North (7-1).
The Lions entered the campaign tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1100 but have seen those odds shorten all the way down to +450, second on the odds board behind only the Kansas City Chiefs (+375) at ESPN BET. Detroit is also the clear favorite to win the NFC at +185, leading the San Francisco 49ers,next-closestat +500.
Dan Campbell's squad got to this point through its impressive play, but the Lions have also been responsible for some of the hottest future tickets on the market. ESPN BET reports that the Lions have garnered a league-leading 15.2% of bets and 21.9% of handle to win the Super Bowl, as well as a conference-leading 27.4% of bets and 47.1% of handle to win the NFC since the season kicked off Sept. 5.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have attracted comparatively little action since the start of the season, getting 10.7% of the tickets and 12% of the handle for the championship, and 17.9% of tickets and 33.8% of handle. That said, Kansas City has been very popular on a week-to-week basis, taking the most handle overall for spread and moneyline bets, according to DraftKings.
Another popular futures option has been the Baltimore Ravens, who have remained in the third spot on ESPN BET's odds board despite shortening from +1000 to +600 since the start of the season. Baltimore has the second-most bets (11.2%) and handle (15.6%) at ESPN BET since Sept. 5, and the most to win the AFC (25.6% bets, 49.8% handle).
Wild, wild NFC West
The 49ers entered the 2024 season with high championship expectations after narrowly falling to the Chiefs in the last Super Bowl, showing the second-best odds at +600. However, a somewhat disappointing start now has them sitting at +850, fifth on ESPN BET's odds board, with relatively little public support.
Part of San Francisco's problem is the very strong division around them. Every team in the NFC West currently has plus-odds to win the division title, with the 49ers at +110, the Arizona Cardinals at +200, the Los Angeles Rams at +375 and the Seattle Seahawks at a more distant +1200. Arizona tops the division standings at 5-4, but Seattle is only a game behind in last place at 4-5, with San Francisco and Los Angeles both in the middle at 4-4.
There tends to be a division like this every NFL season. Last year, the AFC North had all teams at +1200 or shorter to win the division at this time of the season, with the AFC North and AFC West both claiming that distinction in 2021, and the NFC West in 2020, according to ESPN Research.
The odds for the 2024 NFC West may look the way they do based on power ratings and strength of schedule. ESPN Analytics gives the Cardinals a 43% chance to win the division with the 30th ranked remaining strength of schedule, while the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks all have remaining schedule difficulties in the league's top 11.
That said, it's L.A. that has been receiving a lot of bettor attention to win the division, taking in a leading 46.1% of bets and 41.1% of handle since the start of the campaign. BetMGM also identifies the Rams as its biggest division liability.
Next comes Seattle for both metrics, then Arizona who has actually taken more wagers than San Francisco to this point.
Worst bad beat of year highlights Sunday NFL slate
The Washington Commanders became the first team to go over their season win total (6.5) on Sunday. The Commanders defeated the New York Giants 27-22 to improve to 7-2 on the season. At BetMGM sportsbooks, 77% of the bets and 66% of the money wagered was on the Commanders over 6.5 wins entering the season.
Washington has covered the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest streak since the Tennessee Titans in 2022. Sunday's cover came down a failed 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter by the Giants, who were four-point underdogs.
"Our biggest need was the Giants, and they couldn't get that 2-point conversion at the end of the game," John Murray, executive director at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said.
Last-play prop bad beat
The most negative completed pass in the NFL this century came on the last play of the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills game, and it caused a tough beat for anyone who bet the over on Tua Tagovailoa's passing yards.
The over/under on Tagovailoa's passing yards was set around 249.5 at most sportsbooks. He had 255 passing yards when he lined up for the final play. Trailing 30-27 at their own 30 with five seconds left, Tagovailoa completed a short pass to De'Von Achane, who lateraled to Jaylen Waddle. Waddle ran backward and was tackled at the Miami 6-yard line, a loss of 24 yards. Tagovailoa's passing yards went from 255 to 231 on the play, which produced the most negative yards on a completed pass this century, per ESPN Research.
Post-Lions losing streak snapped, covering trend still active
After beating the New England Patriots 20-17, the Titans are the first team this season to win a game outright after playing the Detroit Lions as their most recent previous opponent. However, the Titans failed to cover the -3.5 spread (per ESPN BET odds), meaning teams are 0-7 ATS in their next game after playing Detroit.
Tennessee fell to 1-7 ATS on the season. The Green Bay Packers (who lost to the Lions in Week 9) have a bye before facing the Chicago Bears in Week 11.
A big underdog wins outright again
With their 23-22 win over the New Orleans Saints, the Carolina Panthers pulled off the 10th outright upset by an underdog of 7.5 points or greater this season, the most through Week 9 since 1995 (12). Carolina entered the contest at +7.5, according to ESPN BET odds.
The sportsbook says that Saints moneyline (-340) was the sixth-most-popular parlay leg selection Sunday, while betting tracking app Pikkit says that 9,332 of 9,691 Saints ML bets tracked were in parlays. Panthers +7.5 received 57.9% of the handle despite only 35.5% of the wagers, and they were the biggest moneyline winner of the week thus far (+280), per ESPN BET. The Panthers are the only underdog to win outright this week. Favorites were 12-1 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread.
Bears-Cardinals attract lopsided betting
The Bears-Cardinals game attracted the most lopsided betting action of any afternoon game at ESPN BET. Approximately 83.7% of the money wagered was on the underdog Bears plus the points. The line closed at Bears +2. The Cardinals won 29-9.
