Chargers at 49ers on Sunday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

ByESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts ESPN logo
Sunday, November 13, 2022

Week 10 of Sunday's NFL slate concludes with the night game between the 5-3Los Angeles Chargers and the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers(-7, 45.5) from Levi's Stadium.

So what can we expect from a betting standpoint Sunday night?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan,fantasy and sports betting analystsEric Moody and Andre Snellings,ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitzand Football Outsiders'Aaron Schatzprovide their top plays for the matchup.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.

The San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45.5) welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Levi's Stadium on Sunday night fresh off their Week 9 bye. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games while the 49ers boast a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven home games and last seven games against a team with a winning record. What are your thoughts on the spread and total for this matchup and who do you think will win this non-conference matchup?

Fortenbaugh: I'd play the under in this spot. The Chargers run defense stinks, which is exactly how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will want to attack them. This will most certainly help bleed the clock, considering the 49ers rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders' pace metric. Meanwhile, the Chargers offensive line and wide receiving units are banged up, which should limit the upside of quarterbackJustin Herbert.

Schatz: There are a lot of reasons to favor the 49ers in this one. Christian McCaffrey against a terrible Chargers run defense, for example. Nick Bosa probably going against a practice squad right tackle, Foster Sarell. Austin Ekeler against a 49ers run defense that ranks fourth in DVOA. But the Chargers do have a winning record and have playedmost of their games close, and 7 points is a lot to give them. The 49ers are weak against deep passes, and while the Chargers don't throw as many deep passes as most other teams, Justin Herbert is good on those passes, and that's what you throw when you fall behind. I can definitely see a backdoor cover here or a game that's closer than expected late. So I'll go with Chargers +7.

Fulghum: The 49ers might be the best team in the NFC. Yeah, I said it. I'd lay the points at home, coming off the bye against the Chargers. San Diego's absolutely dreadful run defense is in for a long day with McCaffrey now installed as the lead back and WRDeebo Samuelcoming back from injury. Herbert's assignment against the league's No. 1 defense is made infinitely more difficult by the injuries to his pass-catchers. I also think this is an under environment due to the 49ers' ability to run the football on offense and suppress what is already a Chargers passing game that lacks explosive play ability.

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McCaffrey had three total touchdowns in his last outing against the Rams and faces a Chargers defense that allowed the Falcons to compile 202 rushing yards against them last week and are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, worst in the NFL. McCaffrey's rushing props are over/under 77.5 yards and over/under 36.5 receiving yards. Do you think he will exceed these numbers on Sunday night against Brandon Staley's team?

Snellings: I'm taking the over on McCaffrey for both rushing and total yards against the Chargers. Their defense is weak enough against the run that he could go over the total yards prop on the ground alone, and of course he is always a huge threat through the air as well.

What is your favorite bet for Sunday night?

Schatz: Let's go with San Francisco in the first quarter -2.5. DVOA ranks San Francisco sixth on offense and second on defense in the first quarter of games. We know Kyle Shanahan is good at scripting those initial plays. The Chargers rank 25th on offense and 28th on defense in the first quarter.

What is your favorite player prop for Sunday night?

Snellings: McCaffrey over 114 rushing/receiving yards. We're looking at arguably the best rusher in the league against arguably the worst rushing defense. And, as a kicker, McCaffrey already has two games over 80 receiving yards and four over 50 receiving yards this season, and he's always a threat to pop for triple-digits through the air. The total yards line almost can't be set high enough for me not to take McCaffrey over in this matchup.

Walder:Samuel under 50.5 receiving yards (-118). Samuel is still a YAC-monster, but quietly his other skills have been a little off the mark this year, according to our Receiver Tracking Metrics: his Open Score is a pedestrian 48, and his Catch Score is a fairly awful 33. Add in the extra target competition via McCaffrey and I'm willing to fade Samuel here.

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