NFL divisional round betting guide: Props, odds, lines, more

ByMike Clay ESPN logo
Sunday, January 21, 2024

The NFL's divisional round is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each of this weekend's pivotal playoff games.

My weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.

Exclusively for ESPN+ members: If you'd like to see a list of around 100 props and my recommended plays for each, please click on this link.

Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.

Ford Field, Detroit

Sunday 3 p.m. ET

Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250); Detroit Lions (-300)

Total: 48.5; Opened: 48.5

FPI favorite: Lions by 4.5 (62.5% to win outright)

Clay's Projected Score: Lions 27, Buccaneers 23

  • Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TD passes (-105): Mayfield tossed three TD passes against the Eagles last week and has at least two passing scores in 11 out of 18 games. That includes five of his past six outings and seven of his nine road games for the season. Mayfield was inexplicably held without a passing score in Tampa Bay's 20-6 loss to Detroit in Week 6, but that was likely a fluke considering the Lions allowed 28 TD passes during the regular season (sixth most). Including last week's win, Detroit has surrendered at least two passing scores in 10 out of 18 games, including four straight. This is an easy one to get behind around even money.

Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET

Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (+130); Buffalo Bills (-150)

Total: 45.5; Opened: 45.5

FPI favorite: Bills by 2.3 (56.6% to win outright)

Clay's Projected Score: Bills 25, Chiefs 21

  • Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 passing attempts (-110): This is a game script/scheme/matchup play as the Chiefs are 3.0-point road underdogs and operate the league's game-script adjusted, pass-heaviest offense. Mahomes has attempted at least 38 passes in his past five games against Buffalo and is averaging 43.8 per game during the span. That includes 38 and 44 attempts in two previous playoff games and 43 attempts when these teams met in Week 14. In total, Mahomes has averaged 37.5 passing attempts per game this season. That number jumps to 40.0 per game in Kansas City's six losses (38-plus in five of those six).
  • Harrison Butker under 2.5 XP made (-125): To convert extra points, you need to attempt them in the first place -- and to attempt them, you need your team to score touchdowns. Excluding a Week 18 game in which the starters rested, the Kansas City offense has scored at least three touchdowns only five times this season. The Buffalo defense, meanwhile has allowed more than two scores in just five games, including zero times in the six games since the team's Week 13 bye. The Chiefs very rarely go for 2-point conversions, which helps Butker's cause, but that's often game-script related, and they very well may need to do so this week as they are underdogs for the first time since Super Bowl LVII.
  • Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-105): The gift that keeps on giving, Allen has thrown at least one interception in 12 of his past 14 games. He avoided getting picked off against the Steelers last week, but the only other time he has gone without one since Week 5 was the Week 15 victory over Dallas in which he attempted only 15 passes. The Chiefs haven't had many interceptions this season, but Allen served one up in their Week 14 matchup, and they did pick off Tua Tagovailoa in last week's wild-card win.

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