NFL Week 14 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, stats, fantasy tips

ByESPN staff ESPN logo
Friday, December 9, 2022

The NFL Week 14 schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we've got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and playoff picture chances. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 14 slate, including an NFC East showdown between the Eagles and Giants,Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert and a Buccaneers trip out to San Francisco to face rookie seventh-round quarterback Brock Purdy. It all culminates with a "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Patriots and the Cardinals on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:





Thursday: LAR 17, LV 16


Eagles (11-1) at Giants (7-4-1)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: PHI -7 (44.5)

What to watch for: The Eagles have the higher-ranked offense, defense, passing and running attacks. They have a noticeable talent advantage in this matchup. When Giants coach Brian Daboll was asked this week what impressed him about Philadelphia on tape, he said, "Everything!" The Eagles are 11-1 and a heavy favorite on the road for a reason. It's another tough matchup for the Giants, who have won twice (2-4-1) in seven contests against teams that currently have winning records. -- Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: Eagles running back Miles Sanders racks up 150 total yards with a touchdown. The Giants' rush defense ranks 26th, yielding more than 140 yards per game. After an air-based attack against the Titans last week, look for the Eagles to get it back to the ground. -- Tim McManus

Stat to know: This is the first meeting between the Eagles and Giants since 2010 in which both teams are multiple games above .500.

What's at stake: The Eagles can clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. But even if they lose, they can clinch this week with losses from the 49ers and Seahawks. ESPN's FPI says they also have a 71% chance to land the conference's top seed, and it would climb to 79% with a win (or fall to 48% with a loss). The Giants, meanwhile, have a 58% chance to make the playoffs, but that jumps to 78% if they can beat Philadelphia. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Eagles | Giants

What to know for fantasy:Darius Slaytonhas very quietly put up at least 11.5 points in five of his past six games as the lead receiver in this offense. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Giants are 7-1 against the spread as an underdog this season. The seven cover wins as an underdog are the most in the NFL. The Giants are 5-2-1 outright as an underdog. Read more.

Moody's pick: Eagles 30, Giants 21

Walder's pick: Eagles 34, Giants 17

FPI prediction: PHI, 73% (by an average of 7.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside the Hurts-Brown brotherhood ... How Giants-Commanders tie affects NFC East playoff odds ... Philly Special Christmas' Eagles to release holiday album ...How the Eagles can clinch a playoff spot this weekend

Jets (7-5) at Bills (9-3)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -10 (43)

What to watch for: The Jets' defense played a huge role in the team's win over the Bills earlier this season by giving quarterback Josh Allen a tough task with their zone defense. Allen went 11-of-23 on plays against zone coverage with two interceptions and no touchdowns for a 2.8 QBR on those plays. The ability of the Jets' defense to give Allen a hard time again will be a crucial factor. Jets QB Mike White will also be looking for a better performance in this matchup. In his most recent start against the Bills in Week 10 of 2021, he threw zero touchdown passes and four interceptions. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: The Jets, one of 10 teams that haven't scored a defensive touchdown, will end the streak on a pick-six by cornerbackSauce Gardner. The rookie gets his hands on a lot of footballs (15 passes defended) but hasn't had an interception since Week 9 against the Bills, one of 11 thrown by Allenthis season. Look for Gardner, known for his sticky coverage, to pick Allen again. -- Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Bills are seeking their fourth straight 10-win season, which would match the longest streak in franchise history (1990-93, the years when they made four consecutive Super Bowls).

What's at stake: The Bills -- near locks to make the playoffs -- have an 85% chance to win the AFC East (per ESPN's FPI). They also carry a 46% chance to be the AFC's top seed, which jumps to 50% with a win or 19% with a loss. The Jets hold a 36% chance to make the playoffs, though a win skyrockets that to 63%. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Jets | Bills

What to know for fantasy:Zonovan "Bam" Knightis the only player in football with 65 rush yards and 25 receiving yards in each of the past two weeks. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Each of New York's past four games against AFC teams have gone under the total. Read more.

Moody's pick: Bills 29, Jets 24

Walder's pick: Jets 24, Bills 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 83.5% (by an average of 11.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: White gets shot at redemption while trying to solidify job ... Cook looks to build off his career-best game ... Mitchell latest Jets OT lost for season ... Miller out for season with ACL injury ... White scores big with teammates

Browns (5-7) at Bengals (8-4)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -5.5 (46.5)

What to watch for: The Bengals are enjoying a four-game win streak, the team's best under coach Zac Taylor. But Cleveland has Cincinnati's number, winning five straight contests in the "Battle of Ohio." Cincinnati's improved pass protection will have to deal with Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett, who leads the NFL in pass rush win rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Ben Baby

Bold prediction: Coming off their first punt-return touchdown since 2015 -- and two defensive TDs last weekend -- the Browns will score another non-offensive TD against the Bengals. Cleveland CB Denzel Ward picked off Joe Burrow for a 99-yard TD return on the opening drive in the Browns' trip to Cincinnati last season. The Browns, once again, will get points from their defense or special teams. -- Jake Trotter

Stat to know:Burrow is 0-4 in his career against the Browns, and his latest two games against Cleveland are among his three worst games in terms of Total QBR since the start of last season.

What's at stake: Cincinnati has a 93% chance to qualify for the playoffs, along with a 38% chance to win the AFC North, via ESPN's FPI. Win, and those improve to 98% and 44%, respectively. A loss means 82% and 22%. Cleveland, on the other hand, is playing with a 5% chance to make the playoffs, and even a win would improve it to only 13%. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Browns | Bengals

What to know for fantasy:Amari Cooper held a 43% target share in Deshaun Watson's 2022 debut. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Cleveland is 3-0 ATS against divisional opponents this season. Read more.

Moody's pick: Bengals 28, Browns 25

Walder's pick: Bengals 31, Browns 7

FPI prediction: CIN, 73% (by an average of 7.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Watson returns to the football spotlight, where questions persist ... Bengals tout Burrow for MVP after win over Mahomes, Chiefs ... Browns' Watson on rust: 'When it clicks, it clicks' ... Bengals' Taylor: TE Hurst doubtful for Week 14 ...RB Mixon will start when cleared to play

Vikings (10-2) at Lions (5-7)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DET -2 (51.5)

What to watch for: Meaningful December football games are being played in the Motor City for the first time in years as the Lions continue to push for a playoff spot. The Lions have won three of their past four games, but the Vikings have lost only twice this season as they look to clinch the NFC North with a victory. Former Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson is returning to Detroit for the first time since being traded in November. Lions head coach Dan Campbell anticipates the atmosphere being "electric" at Ford Field on Sunday with so much on the line. -- Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: The over/under will be surpassed before the start of the fourth quarter. The teams combined for 52 points in their Week 3 matchup, and that was only because they attempted five field goals (and missed four). Both offenses are playing better ahead of this rematch. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in three of their past four games, and the Lions are averaging 32 points in their past four games. -- Kevin Seifert

Stat to know:Dalvin Cookis 73 rushing yards away from a fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. Cook would be the first Viking with four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons since Adrian Peterson (four from 2007 to '10).

What's at stake: Minnesota can clinch the NFC North title (and the playoffs) with a win or tie. ESPN's FPI also gives the Vikings a 7% chance to end up with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Detroit has a 5% chance to make the playoffs. It also has an 8% chance to have the top draft pick (via the Rams), and both of its first-rounders are projected to be in the top 15. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Vikings | Lions

What to know for fantasy:Jared Goffaverages 19.7 fantasy points per game indoors this season with 18 touchdown passes in those eight games. In his three outdoor games: 9.1 fantasy points per game with one touchdown pass. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Detroit is 19-10 ATS under Campbell, tied for the second-best mark in that span. Read more.

Moody's pick: Vikings 30, Lions 27

Walder's pick: Vikings 27, Lions 20

FPI prediction: MIN, 55.5% (by an average of 1.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Judging early returns from Vikings' three trades with NFC North rivals ... Lions rookie WR Williams makes NFL debut in win vs. Jaguars ... Vikings' comfort in high-leverage situations continues to pay off ... 'I think we can compete with anybody': Lions' confidence riding high ahead of Vikings clash ...Goff: I feel like I'm playing best football of my career

Ravens (8-4) at Steelers (5-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -2 (36.5)

What to watch for: The Steelers will likely face backup Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley for the second consecutive time in the series. Huntley also played in place of Lamar Jackson in last year's regular-season finale and completed 16 of 31 attempts for 141 yards with two interceptions. He also rushed 12 times for 72 yards. Huntley isn't Jackson, but his skill set is similar enough that the scheme won't change. The Steelers have fared pretty well against mobile quarterbacks this season, but Huntley presents a challenge the Steelers haven't truly faced yet. -- Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: The Ravens will end Kenny Pickett's turnover-free streak. Pickett, Pittsburgh's rookie quarterback, hasn't turned the ball over the past four games, which is the longest streak by a Steelers starting quarterback since 2000 (when Kent Graham went four consecutive games). Baltimore has excelled in taking the ball away and has forced a turnover in 14 straight games, which is the league's longest active streak. Pittsburgh is 0-4 when Pickett turns the ball over. -- Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: The Steelers hold a 32-24 advantage over the Ravens all time, including playoffs, but the two teams have split their past 40 meetings.

What's at stake: ESPN's FPI is giving Baltimore a 94% chance to earn a playoff berth. It has a 62% chance to win the AFC North, and those odds could rise to 74% with a win or drop to 48% with a loss. The Steelers hold a 2% chance to sneak into the playoffs, while their draft pick is projected to be No. 11. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

What to know for fantasy:Diontae Johnsonhad double-digit targets on Monday night and failed to reach 14 fantasy points. Again. He's done that five times this season, most in the NFL. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Baltimore is 9-7 ATS in games without Jackson starting since drafting him in 2018. Read more.

Moody's pick: Steelers 17, Ravens 13

Walder's pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 16

FPI prediction: BAL, 56.7% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ravens say Jackson 'week-to-week' with knee injury ... The Steelers in the playoffs -- so you're saying there's a (slight) chance? ... Pickens addresses sideline outburst

Texans (1-10-1) at Cowboys (9-3)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -17.5 (44)

What to watch for: The Cowboys are 17-point favorites over the Texans, which is the largest spread in the NFL this season. The Chiefs were 15.5-point favorites over the Rams two weeks ago. The Cowboys' average margin of victory this season is 17.2 points per game, and since Dak Prescott's return from a fractured thumb, the margin is 19.2 points per game. With a win Sunday, this Cowboys team would post back-to-back double-digit-win seasons for the first time since getting six in a row from 1991 to '96. -- Todd Archer

Bold prediction: The Texans will cover the spread. They give up a bunch of yards (378 per game), but they're stout in red zone defense, ranking seventh best in the NFL. That'll be enough to keep the Texans in range before they score a late touchdown. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know:Prescott has had multiple passing TDs in five straight games. One more would match the longest streak of his career (six straight last season)

What's at stake: Two ends of the spectrum here. Dallas is looking close to a playoff lock, with a 26% chance to still win the NFC East, too (via ESPN's FPI). But the Texans (already eliminated) have an 80% chance to land the No. 1 draft pick. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Texans | Cowboys

What to know for fantasy:Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Watson. That's the full list of flex players with more fantasy points than Tony Pollardover the past four weeks. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Dallas has the best cover margin in the NFL this season (plus-8.6). Read more.

Moody's pick: Cowboys 35, Texans 13

Walder's pick: Cowboys 26, Texans 13

FPI prediction: DAL, 94.8% (by an average of 20.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Texans benching Allen, back to Mills ... Source: Cowboys have concerns after meeting with OBJ

Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (7-5)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TEN -3.5 (41)

What to watch for: The Titans are caught in a four-game slump in regards to running the football. Derrick Henry has 208 total rushing yards over the past four games. The big problem is that, on average, Henry has been hit one or fewer yards after taking handoffs in that span. Look for the Titans to get Henry established early against the Jaguars. -- Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: Henrywill run for three touchdowns and 120 yards against the Jaguars. Henry has run for 14 touchdowns in his 11 career games against the Jaguars, including 12 in the past six, and averages 118 yards per game against the Jaguars in Nashville. The Jaguars aren't bad against the run (113.6 yards per game, 13th in the NFL), but Henry has dominated his hometown franchise in his career, and he will continue to do that on Sunday. -- Mike DiRocco

Stat to know:Henry had zero rushing TDs in his past two games (his longest streak of the season). He has not gone three straight games In a season without a rushing TD since 2018.

What's at stake: Tennessee is looking at a 92% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI, and it could even be in position to clinch next week if it first beats Jacksonville on Sunday. The Jaguars have an 8% chance to make the playoffs and 16% chance to earn a top-five draft pick. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Jaguars | Titans

What to know for fantasy: We are all aware of the passing acumen ofTrevor Lawrence, but he's developing a little prime Aaron Rodgerswhen it comes to his fantasy profile -- more than 25 rush yards in three of his past four games. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS on the road this season. Read more.

Moody's pick: Jaguars 23, Titans 20

Walder's pick: Jaguars 23, Titans 20

FPI prediction: TEN, 50.4% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Turning Ls into lessons: Lawrence is shaping up to be the franchise QB Jacksonville wanted ... Henry shoulders blame for Titans' run-game woes amid back-to-back losses ... Lawrence expects to play vs. Titans, relieved toe injury wasn't more serious ... Firing of GM Jon Robinson comes at odd time for Titans ...Mike Vrabel on Titans firing GM: Have to move forward

Chiefs (9-3) at Broncos (3-9)

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -9 (44)

What to watch for: Here's a number for everybody: Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson was 27 years old the last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs. As in Sept. 17, 2015, a 31-24 Denver win at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have won 13 consecutive games against the Broncos, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has never been behind center for a loss to the Broncos, and the Broncos carry the league's lowest-scoring offense into this matchup -- 13.8 points per game. And it will be the 14th consecutive loss if coach Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson and a long list of backup players on offense can't find the touchdowns they have struggled to score this season. -- Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: Harrison Butker will kick four field goals for the Chiefs, who will struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. The Chiefs have been strong inside the opponents' 20 this season, getting a TD 66% of the time to rank fifth in the league. But the Broncos have been a dominant red zone team defensively, ranking first in allowing a touchdown on just 32% of opponents' trips inside the 20. The Chiefs were just 1-of-6 and needed four field goals from Butker in a recent win over the Rams, who rank second in red zone defense. -- Adam Teicher

Stat to know:Travis Kelceneeds 32 receiving yards for his seventh season with 1,000 receiving yards. This would extend his all-time record for most by a tight end.

What's at stake: Despite all the talk about how competitive the AFC West would be this season, the Chiefs can clinch the division title in Week 14 with a win and a Chargers loss. Kansas City also has a 44% chance of being the AFC's top seed, per ESPN's FPI. Speaking of the AFC West hype, Denver can be eliminated with a loss or wins from the Jets, Ravens and either the Bengals or Patriots. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Chiefs | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: RBIsiah Pachecohas at least 15 touches in four straight games and is averaging 5.1 yards per touch over that span. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget:Wilson is 5-0 ATS in his career as at least a 7.5-point underdog (1-4 straight up). He has been an eight-point underdog only twice. Read more.

Moody's pick: Chiefs 34, Broncos 14

Walder's pick: Chiefs 34, Broncos 13

FPI prediction: KC, 87.6% (by an average of 14 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside Dunlap's bittersweet journey to 100 sacks ... One-score losses a common thread in Broncos' season ... A seventh straight AFC West title never looked unlikely to Chiefs

Buccaneers (6-6) at 49ers (8-4)

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF -3.5 (37.5)

What to watch for: Tom Brady vs. Brock Purdy isn't the quarterback matchup anyone expected for this game, but it's undeniably the most interesting storyline. Brady comes back to his childhood home in the Bay Area with seven world championships to face Purdy, the first "Mr. Irrelevant" to start a game at quarterback in NFL history, with the Niners' five-game winning streak on the line. Purdy won't have the element of surprise like last week, but he will have some history to overcome: Brady is 7-0 against quarterbacks making their first NFL regular-season start. -- Nick Wagoner

Bold prediction: This one will come down to defense, and the Bucs' battered secondary will deliver two interceptions against Purdy -- their first multi-interception game since their Week 2 win over the Saints. They have only seven picks on the season. -- Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers have lost three straight road games. Brady has never lost four consecutive road starts in his career.

What's at stake: The Buccaneers have a 90% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI -- and a matching chance to take the NFC South. The 49ers also have a 90% chance to make the playoffs, but their division odds are 70%. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Buccaneers | 49ers

What to know for fantasy:RBRachaad White started in London a few weeks ago and scored the game-winning touchdown on Monday night against the Saints, but Leonard Fournetteheld the 45-31 snap edge in Week 13. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Tampa Bay is 10-2 to the under this season. Read more.

Moody's pick: 49ers 22, Buccaneers 20

Walder's pick: Buccaneers 19, 49ers 16

FPI prediction: TB, 52.7% (by an average of 0.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Brady sets record with 44th career 4th-quarter comeback ... Bosa is playing like a Defensive Player of the Year, and 49ers need him more than ever ...Garoppolo injury: Can the 49ers win a Super Bowl? What's next ...Purdy overcame 'that whole butterfly feeling' in leading 49ers to crucial victory

Panthers (4-8) at Seahawks (7-5)

4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SEA -4 (44.5)

What to watch for: The Panthers have struggled to a 4-8 record in large part because they've had arguably the worst quarterback play of any team this season, with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker combining for a 22.1 Total QBR. Seattle's Geno Smith, meanwhile, ranks fifth at 64.8 amid his resurgent season. If the Panthers are interested in making a run at Smith should Seattle let him reach free agency, then GM Scott Fitterer -- a former Seahawks executive who was in Seattle during Smith's time as Russell Wilson's backup -- will get an up-close look at him Sunday. -- Brady Henderson

Bold prediction:Darnold will throw two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, against a Seattle defense ranked second in the NFL in takeaways with 21. While Darnold didn't have an interception in his first start of the season two weeks ago, he had five in his previous four starts in 2021. -- David Newton

Stat to know:The Seahawks have 21 defensive takeaways this season, which is tied for second most in the NFL. Seattle also has 10 games with multiple takeaways, most in NFL.

What's at stake: Seattle enters this matchup with an 80% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI. That could rise to 88% with a win or slide to 62% with a loss. The Seahawks also have a 30% chance to catch San Francisco and win the NFC West. Carolina, meanwhile, still has a 6% chance to make the playoffs, but it appears more likely to land a top draft pick. The Panthers are projected to pick No. 5. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Panthers | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: Over the past month, bothDK Metcalf and Tyler Locketthave a target share north of 25%. For reference, the target monster that is Travis Kelce owns a lower target share over that stretch than both Seahawks receivers. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Each of the past four meetings between these teams has gone over the total. Read more.

Moody's pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 21

Walder's pick: Seahawks 20, Panthers 19

FPI prediction: SEA, 70% (by an average of 6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Revisiting Panthers' unlikely 2014 playoff run: Can they do it again in weak NFC South? ... Pete Carroll: RB Walker III has ankle strain ... Panthers' Anderson had stroke in Oct., now ready to play ... Our updated NFL rookie rankings: Jets, Seahawks dominate our top 10 ... What's next for Mayfield after being released by Panthers? ... The Seahawks needed Smith's first game-winning drive more than ever

Dolphins (8-4) at Chargers (6-6)

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: MIA -3 (51.5)

What to watch for: There's plenty of intrigue around the quarterback matchup, as the No. 5 overall pick in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa, faces Justin Herbert, who was selected one pick later. Since the start of last season, Tagovailoa and Herbert have been two of the league's best quarterbacks, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in QBR. This season, Tagovailoa has the Dolphins on pace to earn their first playoff berth since 2016, while Herbert and the Chargers are in a must-win situation if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2018. -- Lindsey Thiry

Bold prediction:"Sunday Night Football" will be an offensive showcase highlighting two of the best passing teams in the NFL. Both Tagovailoa and Herbert will surpass the 320-passing-yard mark, and both teams will support two 100-yard receivers. The Dolphins will take advantage of the Chargers' 28th-ranked rushing defense, though, and run for at least 130 yards. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know:Jaylen Waddle needs 28 receiving yards for 1,000 yards this season; Waddle and Tyreek Hillwould be the second pair of Dolphins teammates with 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.

What's at stake: Miami comes into Week 14 with an 84% chance to make the playoffs (ESPN's FPI), and a win would pop that up to 95%. A loss? 75%. ESPN's FPI also says the Dolphins hold a 13% chance to overtake the Bills for the AFC East. Los Angeles, on the other hand, enters with a 56% chance to make the playoffs. Win, and that goes to 73%. Lose, and it falls to 34%. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Dolphins | Chargers

What to know for fantasy:Keenan Allenhas racked up 29 targets in his three games since returning from injury, with his fantasy point total increasing in each instance. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Twelve of the past 14 meetings between Miami and Los Angeles went under the total. Read more.

Moody's pick: Dolphins 31, Chargers 28

Walder's pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 23

FPI prediction: LAC, 56.4% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mike McDaniel expects Tagovailoa, Dolphins to bounce back vs. Chargers ... Would Herbert go No. 1 in a 2020 redraft? ... Tagovailoa downplays ankle injury after loss

Patriots (6-6) at Cardinals (4-8)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: NE -1 (43.5)

What to watch for: This is the game that could be the last nail in the Cardinals' season. A loss to New England would put them even further away from making a miraculous run to the playoffs and drop Arizona to 4-9. The last time they played, the Patriots drew up the blueprint on how to slow down Kyler Murray. The question becomes, will Arizona let New England do it again? -- Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: Mac Jones and the Patriots' struggling red zone offense (tied with Denver for last in the league) will score two touchdowns inside the 20-yard line against the Cardinals' bottom-ranked red zone defense. Meanwhile, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will come close to matching his season high of 100 rushing yards (vs. Seattle, Oct. 16), highlighting the Patriots' struggles this season containing mobile signal-callers. -- Mike Reiss

Stat to know:Murray is in his second game back after missing two games with a hamstring injury. He is also looking to avoid losing four straight starts for the second time in his career (six straight as a rookie in 2019).

What's at stake: We have an elimination scenario! Arizona could get knocked out of the race with a loss and wins from the Seahawks and Giants. New England's chances don't look too much better. It holds a 13% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI. That could rise to 25% or fall to 7%, depending on the outcome of Monday night's game. See playoff picture.

Injuries: Patriots | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy:Rhamondre Stevensonhas 21 catches since the Week 10 bye. He hasn't scored over that stretch, but the player profile is that of an elite fantasy option. See Week 14 rankings.

Betting nugget: Arizona has gone over in six consecutive games, tied with Chicago for the longest active over streak in the NFL. Read more.

Moody's pick: Cardinals 23, Patriots 19

Walder's pick: Cardinals 17, Patriots 16

FPI prediction: ARI, 64.2% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Belichick: 'Too hard' now to make major changes to offense ... How J.J. and Kealia Watt juggle parenthood with being pro athletes ... What is Belichick's plan to get struggling Patriots back 'above the line'? ... Jones: 'Let emotions get to me' in loss to Bills

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