NFL Week 12 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 12 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 12 slate, including quarterback Tommy Devito's first start of the season against the Bucs and the Cardinals facing the Seahawks in a key NFC West matchup. It all culminates with a "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

MIN-CHI | DET-IND | NE-MIA

TB-NYG | DAL-WSH | KC-CAR

TEN-HOU | DEN-LV | SF-GB

ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC

Thursday: CLE 24, PIT 19

Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAX

Vikings (8-2) at Bears (4-6)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are 8-4 on grass surfaces under coach Kevin O'Connell since the start of the 2022 season, including 2-0 at Soldier Field. That's a decided departure from the franchise's history after it moved indoors to the Metrodome in 1982 and later U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016. During those four decades, the team had a .402 winning percentage on grass and .586 on artificial surfaces. -- Kevin Seifert

Bears storyline to watch: The Bears are in the midst of a four-game losing streak with the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. After switching offensive coordinators from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown last week, Chicago notched its highest point total since Week 6 in a 20-19 loss to Green Bay. The Bears are averaging 11.5 points per game during this losing streak, which is the fewest points per game in the NFL in that span (since Week 8). Coach Matt Eberflus' 2-11 record against NFC North opponents is the worst in the league since he was hired in 2022. -- Courtney Cronin

Stat to know:Vikings quarterbackSam Darnold has had multiple turnovers in four games this season. Minnesota is undefeated in those contests.

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will throw at least two interceptions. He played better last week, but I certainly don't fancy his chances against the unorthodox and very successful Vikings defense. -- Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. The rest of the season seems bright for Odunze. In Week 11, he saw seven-plus targets for the third time this season. He also led the Bears in targets ahead of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings have won and covered four straight meetings in Chicago. The past five meetings in Chicago all went under the total. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Vikings 28, Bears 25

Moody's pick: Vikings 23, Bears 14

Walder's pick: Vikings 24, Bears 16

FPI prediction: MIN, 57.0% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How legit are the 8-2 Vikings? You might be surprised ... How will OC change affect Bears QB Williams? ...Bears' Matt Eberflus defends decision to run clock before kick

Lions (9-1) at Colts (5-6)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -7 (49.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: Despite being the favorites to win this week, the Lions aren't taking this game against the Colts lightly. Detroit is riding an eight-game winning streak and is the NFL's lone team with a perfect road record (5-0), but coach Dan Campbell isn't allowing his squad to buy into the hype. "We're not the underdogs, but we have certain standards of the way we approach things, the way that we prepare for games, and as long as we do that, you will continue to be a tough team to beat, and that's important," Campbell said Monday.-- Eric Woodyard

Colts storyline to watch: One strategy for beating a team with a high-powered offense like the Lions is to win the time-of-possession battle, thereby limiting the opponent's possessions. But the Colts haven't proven they can do this. The Colts rank 31st in time of possession at 26:40 per game. That has been detrimental for their defense because the unit has played too many snaps. Indianapolis is second in the league in defensive snaps, averaging 66.9 per game. -- Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Lions have four games this season with more touchdowns than incompletions. That's the most such games in a season by any team since 1933.

Bold prediction: The two teams will have more combined play-action snaps than any game this season (current high is 32). The Lions and Colts rank first and third in play-action rate, respectively. -- Walder

Injuries: Lions | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. He had a standout performance in Week 11, catching all five of his targets from quarterback Anthony Richardson for 19.4 fantasy points. Downs now faces a Lions secondary that's struggling, allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With that in mind, Downs could be in for another huge performance. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts have not closed as seven-point home underdogs since 2017 (plus-11 versus the Steelers). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Lions 40, Colts 24

Moody's pick: Lions 37, Colts 20

Walder's pick: Lions 30, Colts 21

FPI prediction: DET, 73.4% (by an average of 9.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Goff: Lions striving for 'perfection' on offense ... QB Richardson's running is key for Colts ... Lions lose LB Anzalone for 6-8 weeks ... Paye's heroics keep Colts in the running in AFC South

Patriots (3-8) at Dolphins (4-6)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: The Patriots' defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. New England's minus-6 turnover differential is tied for 26th in the NFL, and finding a way to disrupt quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the rhythm of the Dolphins' passing game will be key. The Dolphins (minus-2 on the season) are coming off a turnover-free game in a win over the Raiders. -- Mike Reiss

Dolphins storyline to watch: Sunday's matchup will feature two of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL over the past month. Since Week 6, Patriots signal-callerDrake Maye owns the lowest off-target throw percentage in the league at 9.2%; right behind him is Tagovailoa at 9.4%. Both players are also completing passes at a higher rate than expected, as both Tagovailoa (4.9%) and Maye (3%) rank in the top 10 in completion percentage over expectation. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Dolphins have a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. Those chances increase to 18.9% with a win and drop to 5.9% with a loss.

Bold prediction: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will catch a pass of at least 30 air yards. The Dolphins face more two-high coverage than any other team, presumably in part to stop Hill. But the Patriots run two-high coverage only 39% of the time, which is below league average. -- Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He has been on a roll with 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, topping 20 fantasy points in two of them. This week, he faces a Dolphins defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami's defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.5%). Stevenson's volume and this matchup make him a strong play. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots won the game outright in their past two appearances as at least six-point underdogs (Weeks 8 and 10 versus the Jets and at the Bears, respectively). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Patriots 22, Dolphins 20

Moody's pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21

Walder's pick: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20

FPI prediction: MIA, 68.0% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Through six starts, Pats QB Maye continues to impress ... How Miami's offense transitioned from explosive to consistent ...Hill: Wrist surgery 'brought up' but I'm playing through it

Buccaneers (4-6) at Giants (2-8)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6 (41.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Bucs center Graham Barton couldn't have put it any better: "The playoffs for us really start now." Coming off their bye week at 4-6, having lost four straight, the Bucs are in a similar predicament as they were last season. They were able to win five out of their final six games. Barring any setbacks, wide receiver Mike Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean should return, and that should give them a boost, while the statuses of Tristan Wirfs (MCL sprain) and Zyon McCollum (hamstring) are up in the air. -- Jenna Laine

Giants storyline to watch: Tommy DeVito is the Giants' new starting quarterback in place of Daniel Jones. DeVito will be trying to rediscover the magic from last season, when he won three straight games as an undrafted free agent. He threw eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions as a rookie. But DeVito also finished with a total QBR of 26.9 as a starter, which was the worst of any qualifying quarterback from Weeks 10 to 16. He'll have his work cut out for him after not having any reps with the first-team offense this summer and season. -- Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are one of three teams in the Super Bowl era to average at least 27.9 points and be under .500. The other two teams (2016 Saints and 2016 Chargers) didn't make the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record a sack. He should get some pass rushes against Evan Neal, the 2022 first-round pick who has struggled to see the field this season. DeVito recorded a 15.6% sack rate last season. -- Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Giants running backTyrone Tracy Jr. He could be key for the Giants with DeVito now under center. Since taking over as the lead back in Week 5, Tracy has scored 14-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games. Facing a Buccaneers defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs, Tracy is set up for another strong performance. Expect New York to lean on him heavily. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:DeVito is 3-3 outright in his career despite being at least a 4.5-point underdog in each game. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Buccaneers 28, Giants 14

Moody's pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 17

Walder's pick: Buccaneers 26, Giants 10

FPI prediction: TB, 68.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: With easiest remaining schedule, can Bucs make a playoff push? ... New Giants starter DeVito trying to avoid 'fun and games' ... Is Bucs WR Evans' 1,000-yard streak in jeopardy? ... Giants bench QB Jones -- what now?

Cowboys (3-7) at Commanders (7-4)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -10 (45.5 O/U)

Cowboys storyline to watch: At 3-7, the Cowboys are looking to avoid their first six-game losing streak since 2015, when they finished 4-12. To do so, they will have to beat their former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, and several former teammates (Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. among them) who joined the Commanders in the offseason. The Cowboys have beaten Washington in five of the past six meetings but bring a different team that will be without at least four opening-day starters because of injuries, though Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) is expected to make his season debut. -- Todd Archer

Commanders storyline to watch: The Commanders need to get their run game untracked after two lackluster showings against stout run defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If they do so, it unlocks their offense. In Washington's seven wins, it has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, but in the four losses it's 3.5. It's not just about Brian Robinson Jr., who averages 4.7 yards per rush in wins, it's also about the quarterback runs. In the seven wins, Jayden Daniels has rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. The good news for Washington: Dallas ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). -- John Keim

Stat to know:Cowboys receiverCeeDee Lamb has 106 targets this season, which is tied with Garrett Wilson for most in the NFL. But he has had only one game with 100-plus receiving yards after eight such games in 2023.

Bold prediction: The Commanders -- including their running backs and Daniels -- will combine to rush for 200 yards in a win over the Cowboys. Washington ranks first in run block win rate (74.7%), and the Cowboys rank 30th in run stop win rate (26.9%). -- Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders

Fantasy X factor:Robinson.He logged 17 touches and 14.2 fantasy points against the Eagles in Week 11. Just last week, Dallas allowed the Texans' Joe Mixon to go off for 35.3 fantasy points. Robinson is in a great spot to deliver for fantasy managers. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. It's their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Commanders 40, Cowboys 17

Moody's pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 16

Walder's pick: Commanders 37, Cowboys 13

FPI prediction: WSH, 78.3% (by an average of 11.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: The Cowboys' tough transition from Quinn to Zimmer as DC ... What's happened to the Commanders' offense? ...How Dan Quinn reinvented himself and has Commanders contending

Chiefs (9-1) at Panthers (3-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -10.5 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have played excellent run defense all season and are third in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and per game (85.3). But they get a difficult test against the Panthers' Chuba Hubbard, who has three 100-yard games and a healthy 5.1 yard-per carry average this season. Can the Panthers shorten the game by successfully running on the Chiefs? -- Adam Teicher

Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers are getting healthy defensively, particularly with the addition of outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who adds a new dimension to their much-needed pass rush. A strong running game has kept Carolina close enough to win its past two games with Bryce Young at quarterback, but the Chiefs have the third-best run defense in the NFL. This might force Young to make more plays. Young has led the Panthers to two straight wins, throwing for 297 yards and one touchdown. -- David Newton

Stat to know: Another win for the Panthers would tie their longest win streak over past five seasons. They won two straight before their bye.

Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will, if he plays, average over 5.5 yards per carry. The Panthers rank 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry, so it should be a nice soft landing for the running back potentially returning from injury. -- Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City might ease Pacheco back in his return from injury. That sets the stage for Hunt against a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Hunt has had 20-plus touches in four of his past five games and scored 17 or more fantasy points in three of them. This could be his last big game before Pacheco takes over. See Week 12 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games after starting the season 1-7 ATS. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Chiefs 34, Panthers 17

Moody's pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 16

Walder's pick: Chiefs 27, Panthers 13

FPI prediction: KC, 77.0% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: What's gone right and wrong for playcaller Andy Reid so far? ...