2026 NHL draft: Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg top rankings

It's that time of year again! NHL teams who did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs will be laser-focused on lottery balls drawn at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday. With so many possibilities and intrigue around the draft class, there are bound to be surprises.

There is no consensus on any player except Gavin McKenna, and even he has scouts questioning whether he should be the first player off the board. If your team needs a high-end defenseman, this is the year. There are a handful of prospects projected to become foundational pieces on the top pair.

My projections model is most heavily favored in this iteration of the rankings, with a few adjustments made. For a refresher, the model weighs scoring statistics from the current season and last season, league strength, tracking statistics (defensive, physical and transition play), age, size and injuries. The injury factor is only weighed as a function of games played given the impact on sample size for projection volatility. The model has five outputs:

• NHL ceiling: A player's peak if everything goes right


• NHL floor: Worst playing outcome for prospect


• NHL probability: Probability the player plays 200 NHL games


• Most likely tier: What the player is most likely to be in the NHL based on statistical comparables


• Statistical comparable: A comparable player in their draft year, based on NHL production equivalency, position, and size

The biggest change this year is the addition of a statistical comparable. Note: This is not about what the comparable player has become in the NHL; it is a comparable to the player in their draft year, before being selected. The comparison accounts for the player's position, NHL production equivalency, and size (to a lesser extent). It is not a projection of what the prospect will become in the NHL. Example: Chase Reid's statistical comparable is Evan Bouchard. That does not mean Reid is going to become Bouchard, it means they are statistically comparable players in their respective draft years.

There are certainly some surprises on this draft ranking, and notably this is not how teams build their internal rankings. Players who appear that are lower down in the consensus lists -- or players who are not on this ranking who are consensus first-round picks -- should not be surprising. Given the model, this is likely related to production and statistical comparables. If a player has strong statistical comparables and produced well according to NHL equivalency, their projection and probability will be stronger. Players with strong 2024-2025 seasons (Ryan Roobroeck) are higher than consensus, because the model does not ignore that production and it raises their overall prospect value score.

Once more scouting and anecdotal information is accounted for in the coming weeks, this list will change. Here is how the top 32 rankings are shaping up right now:

1. Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State University (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Star

NHL floor: Second line

NHL probability: 88%

Most likely tier: Top line

Statistical comparable:Clayton Keller

2. Ivar Stenberg, LW/RW, Frolunda HC (SHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Second line

NHL probability: 91%

Most likely tier: Top line

Statistical comparable:William Nylander

3. Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: Top four

NHL probability: 80%

Most likely tier: Top pair

Statistical comparable: Zach Werenski

4. Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: Middle pair

NHL probability: 65%

Most likely tier: Top pair

Statistical comparable: Evan Bouchard

5. Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman

NHL probability: 71%

Most likely tier: Top four

Statistical comparable: Noah Hanifin

6. Nikita Klepov, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Star

NHL floor: Middle six

NHL probability: 84%

Most likely tier: Top line

Statistical comparable:Kyle Connor

7. Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman

NHL probability: 70%

Most likely tier: Top four

Statistical comparable: Aaron Ekblad

8. Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Middle six

NHL probability: 82%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable:Valeri Nichushkin

9. Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Third line

NHL probability: 74%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable:Matty Beniers

10. Adam Novotny, LW/RW, Peterborough (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 77%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable:Timo Meier

11. Mathis Preston, F, Vancouver (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 73%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable:Oliver Bjorkstrand

12. Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)

NHL ceiling: Middle six

NHL floor: Fourth line

NHL probability: 89%

Most likely tier: Third line

Statistical comparable: Eetu Luostarinen

13. Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, Djurgardens IF (SHL)

NHL ceiling: Second line

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 63%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Connor McMichael

14. Wyatt Cullen, F, USNTDP

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 57%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Travis Konecny

15. Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 59%

Most likely tier: Middle-six center

Statistical comparable: Nick Schmaltz

16. Yegor Shilov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Middle six

NHL probability: 61%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable: Jared McCann

17. Ryan Roobroeck, C, Niagara (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Fourth line

NHL probability: 85%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Sean Couturier

18. Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)

NHL ceiling: Top four

NHL floor: Depth defenseman

NHL probability: 52%

Most likely tier: Middle pair

Statistical comparable: Ryan Pulock

19. Ilia Morozov, F, Miami University (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Third line

NHL probability: 44%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Will Cuylle

20. J.P. Hurlbert, F, Kamloops (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 41%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable: Nikolaj Ehlers

21. Ryan Lin, D, Vancouver (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 40%

Most likely tier: Bottom pair

Statistical comparable: Bowen Byram

22. Ryder Cali, C, North Bay (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Second line

NHL floor: Fourth line

NHL probability: 85%

Most likely tier: Bottom six

Statistical comparable: Jordan Kyrou

23. Adam Valentini, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 66%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Bryan Rust

24. Tommy Bleyl, D, Moncton (QMJHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 42%

Most likely tier: Middle pair

Statistical comparable: Samuel Girard

25. Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa Generals (OHL)

NHL ceiling: Second line

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 86%

Most likely tier: Third line

Statistical comparable: Pavel Zacha

26. Oscar Hemming, F, Boston College (NCAA)

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 36%

Most likely tier: Third line

Statistical comparable: Mark Stone

27. Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)

NHL ceiling: Top pair

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 40%

Most likely tier: Middle pair

Statistical comparable: Mario Ferraro

28. Liam Ruck, F, Medicine Hat (WHL)

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 30%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable: Brock Boeser

29. Elton Hermansson, RW/LW, MoDo (HockeyAllsvenskan)

NHL ceiling: Second line

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 29%

Most likely tier: Third line

Statistical comparable: Eduard Sale

30. Markus Ruck, F, Medicine Hat

NHL ceiling: Top six

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 25%

Most likely tier: Second line

Statistical comparable: Brendan Brisson

31. Marcus Nordmark, LW, Djurgardens IF (U20 Nationell)

NHL ceiling: Top line

NHL floor: Non-NHL

NHL probability: 63%

Most likely tier: Middle six

Statistical comparable: Jake Neighbours

32. Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec (QMJHL)

NHL ceiling: Second line

NHL floor: Bottom six

NHL probability: 43%

Most likely tier: Third line

Statistical comparable: Danny Nelson