2025 NFL draft order projections: Patriots, Browns at top
There is just one week left in the2024 NFL regular season, and several fan bases are starting to think about the 2025 draft, which begins April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let's take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions gave the New York Giants the first pick after Week 16, but there has been a shift at the top of the board after their 45-33 win over the Indianapolis Colts. TheNew England Patriotsare now in line to finish atop the draft board. Which teams are guaranteed to select in the top 10 behind them? Check out our full projections below ahead ofWeek 18.
1. New England Patriots (3-13)
Average draft position: 1.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 78.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
2. Cleveland Browns (3-13)
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.9%
3. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
Average draft position: 3.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 74.3%
4. New York Giants (3-13)
Average draft position: 3.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88%
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
Average draft position: 5.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 59.5%
6. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
Average draft position: 5.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.4%
7. New York Jets (4-12)
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.9%
8. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
9. Chicago Bears (4-12)
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.7%
10. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0%
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Average draft position: 12.1
12. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
Average draft position: 12.8
13. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Average draft position: 12.8
14. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
Average draft position: 13.5
15. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Average draft position: 15.8
16. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Average draft position: 16.3
17. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Average draft position: 17.7
18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
Average draft position: 17.7
19. Denver Broncos (9-7)
Average draft position: 19.8
20. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
Average draft position: 23.0
21. Houston Texans (9-7)
Average draft position: 23.1
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Average draft position: 23.1
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Average draft position: 23.7
24. Washington Commanders (11-5)
Average draft position: 24.3
25. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Average draft position: 24.4
26. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Average draft position: 25.9
27. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Average draft position: 26.5
28. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Average draft position: 27.1
29. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Average draft position: 27.3
30. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
Average draft position: 27.4
31. Detroit Lions (14-2)
Average draft position: 29.0
32. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
Average draft position: 29.7
