My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 6
The 2024 NFL season is cruising along, as each team has played as least four games and most have played five. Divisional races are beginning to take shape and meaningful storylines and trends are becoming more apparent.
Week 6 features a number of interesting games, including one featuring two of the leagues hottest quarterbacks, theWashington Commanders' Jayden Daniels and Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson. The Detroit Lions head to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys in the late afternoon game and in the "Sunday Night Football" matchupJoe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chaseand the Cincinnati Bengals look to bounce back against the New York Giants.
The final game of the week features Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jetson "Monday Night Football." (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Our betting analysts take an early look at Week 6 lines to find some value before things move closer to game time.
Joe Fortenbaugh's first bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over New York Giants
(Last week: Vikings -2.5 against NYJ. Line closed at -2.5. Vikings won, 23-17.)
The look-ahead line here was Cincinnati (-5.5), so we're getting the Bengals at a price that's two points cheaper than last week. Ruminate on that for a second because I just upgraded my power number for Cincinnati after Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense posted 520 yards and 38 points on Baltimore's defense. Cincinnati may be 1-4, but it has four one-score losses ... and those losses have come by a combined 15 points. This is a good buy-low spot on the Bengals, who face a Giants team that is 1-14 straight-up in prime time with quarterback Daniel Jones under center.
Anita Marks' first bet: Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos under 37
(Last week: Commanders -3 vs. Browns. Line closed at 3. Commanders won, 34-13.)
The Chargers and Broncos face off in Week 6 in a game with two offenses not sporting the most threatening playmakers. Both teams lack explosive play ability, one sports a rookie quarterback operating in a very simplistic offense and neither QB has been impressive this season. The Chargers are committed to the run, which eats up time of possession. Defensively, both teams rank in the top five, allowing more than 20 points just once this season. The Chargers are coming off a bye week and getDerwin James Jr.back from suspension. I love the under here.
Ben Solak's first bet: Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys under 52.5 (-110)
Fifty-two-and-a-half points in the current NFL is a mighty steep ask. The Lions offense looked legitimately perfect against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, but that was their first and only dominant offensive performance of the season. The Cowboys, while good in theory, have struggled to execute past the 50-yard line and settled for lots of field goals. This is too much faith in two good but not spectacular offenses.
Seth Walder's first bet:San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West (-105)
(Last week: Commanders to win NFC East at +300. Current line is +200.)
I'm not going to overreact to the 49ers' loss to the Cardinals here, especially not in a week when the first-place team in the division -- the Seahawks -- lost to the New York Giants. The 49ers still have both the best passing offense in the division, in terms of EPA per play (sixth in NFL) and passing defense (eighth). Brock Purdy ranks seventh in QBR, the 49ers have the best playcaller in the game as their head coach and they're only one game back. A lot more is going to have to go wrong for San Francisco to not win the division.
Andre Snellings' first bet: Washington Commanders-Baltimore Ravens over 51.5 total points (-105).
(Last week: Vikings to win NFC North at +105. Current line is -105.)
The Commanders and Ravens are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season. The Ravens have the best offense in the league according to FPI (+4.8), while the Commanders are tied for fourth (+3.7). The Ravens' defense is good (1.3 Defensive FPI, sixth best in league), but the relative strength of both offenses far outstrips the defenses. The Commanders' defense is legitimately bad, ranking 31st in Defensive FPI (-2.2). The Ravens averaged 34.7 PPG in their past three outings, have given up at least 23 points in three of their past four, and are susceptible to long passing plays. The Commanders have averaged 38.0 PPG in their past three outings and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has a penchant for throwing the deep ball. Both these teams have played the Bengals over their past three games, and those games totaled 71 and 79 points and featured excellent quarterback play on both sides. I expect a similar shootout between these two teams Sunday.
Pam Maldonado's first bet:Colorado Buffaloes (+5.5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
(Last week: Navy vs. Air Force OVER 36 points. Line closed at 37.5. Navy won, 34-7.)
The Buffaloes will have home-field advantage in this game and are 2-0 at home this season. Colorado's offense has been impressive, averaging 382 total yards per game, with the 17th-best passing attack in college football. However, it's the Buffaloes defense that has my attention. It was a weakness last season that has now become a strength. Colorado ranks eighth in the nation in takeaways and forced four turnovers against UCF, including a 95-yard fumble return for a touchdown. If Colorado can create similar turnover opportunities against Kansas State, it could swing the game in the Buffs' favor.
