Super Bowl 2024 betting: Big bets, including $1M on 49ers ML
More than $300 billion has been bet with American sportsbooks since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court released a ruling that sparked widespread expansion of legal betting. Now, for the first time, the Super Bowl -- the most heavily bet single game in U.S. sports -- is coming to Las Vegas.
Amazing.
In the first week since the matchup was set, there was at least one million-dollar bet, a six-figure wager on the coin flip (tails never fails!) and a slew of Taylor Swift-related prop offerings from sportsbooks.
Bigger and wilder bets are expected, and ESPN's sports betting team, led by writers Doug Greenberg and David Purdum, will follow it all in this updating file that's ripe for bookmarking.
Good luck!
The big Super Bowl bets
$540,000: Fanatics Sportsbook reports a bettor in Michigan placed this wager on the Chiefs +4.5 (-180) alternate line. The heavily juiced line would net $340,024.
$250,000: BetMGM reported this bet on 49ers -2, and a $200,000 bet on 49ers -130.
$1 million: The first of what's expected to be several million-dollar Super Bowl bets was reported Jan. 30 by Caesars Sportsbook. The bet: $1 million on the 49ers money line (-120).
$600,000: A DraftKings bettor grabbed the 49ers moneyline at -120 with a $600,000 bet that will net $500,000 with a San Francisco victory.
$315,000: One DraftKings bettor staked $315,000 on the 49ers spread at -2 (-105), which will pay out $300,000 in winnings if the Niners cover.
$260,000: A bettor at FanDuel placed a $260,000 wager on the 49ers moneyline at -130, which would net $200,000 if San Francisco wins.
$200,000:Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $200,000 bet on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to win Super Bowl MVP at +240 odds.
$120,000: One bettor at South Point put in wagers for 60 different props across the board at $2,000 each for a total of $120,000, per Vaccaro.
$105,000: Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of the South Point casino reported taking a $105,000 bet on the 49ers -1 on Jan. 29.
$105,000: One bettor at BetMGM put down $140 on Kyle Juszczyk to win Super Bowl MVP at 750-1 odds. The wager would net $105,000 if Juszczyk claims the award.
$100,000: Caesars reported taking a $100,000 on the coin toss to land tails from a Michigan bettor on Jan. 30. A hundred K on the coin toss? What the flip!?
Side note: The most popular prop bet at DraftKings as of Feb. 2 was... tails. The second-most popular: heads.
$25,000 to win $1 million: A bettor with DraftKings reportedly put $25,000 on Kansas City running backIsiah Pacheco to be named Super Bowl MVP. At 40-1, the bet would pay $1 million.
$15,000 to win $975,000: A bettor with DraftKings dropped $15,000 on Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice to be MVP. At 65-1, the bet would win $975,000.
Notes from Sunday morning
With just hours remaining before the first Las Vegas Super Bowl, multiple sportsbooks have joined ESPN BET with a point spread down at 1.5.
Caesars is offering the spread with -110 vig for each side, and FanDuel is offering 49ers -1.5 (-115) and Chiefs +1.5 (-105). ESPN BET is maintaining the spread number, but reversing the juice, with 49ers -1.5 (-105) and Chiefs +1.5 (-115). At FanDuel, 70% of the bets and 73% of the handle are on the K.C. spread, with ESPN BET reporting 65.3% of spread bets on the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, all the other major books on the national market continue to offer the spread at 2 or more, with at least one offering 2.5: Fanatics/PointsBet shows 49ers -2.5/Chiefs +2.5 with equal -110 vig on each side. Fanatics reports 62% of bets and 82% of handle on the Kansas City spread.
"We have taken multiple six-figure bets on the 49ers but there continues to be lopsided action on the Chiefs to win and cover the spread in the Super Bowl," said BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis. "The 49ers winning would be a good outcome for the sportsbook."
In contrast to the volatility of the spread, the total has remained remarkably stable at 47.5, with only minor movements on the juice to speak of. The public largely continues to back the over, with 67.6% of bets on a high-scoring game at ESPN BET.
Notes from Saturday
One day before kickoff, the Super Bowl point spread appears locked in with the San Francisco 49ers listed as consensus 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs, and the over/under at 47.5 at most sportsbooks.
The betting public is siding with the underdog Chiefs, but the majority of large bets-six figures and greater-are on the favored 49ers, according to sportsbooks.
"All the public is on the Chiefs; the big money is on the Niners," Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN.
Caesars Sportsbook on Friday reported having taken four bets of six figures or bettor on the Super Bowl outcome - all of them on the 49ers, including a $1 million money-line wager on the 49ers at -120 odds.
A select few sportsbooks, including Circa and FanDuel, had dropped the point spread to San Francisco -1.5, but -2 is the consensus line and bookmakers aren't expecting the number to budge.
Written by David Purdum
Notes from Thursday
DraftKings on Wednesday reported taking a $500,000 money-line wager on the 49ers from a customer in Massachusetts at -125 odds.
The American Gaming Association on Tuesday released the results of its annual survey on how many adults bet on the Super Bowl and for how much. Both were records this year, with 68 million adults potentially combining to bet $23.1 billion on the Chiefs and Niners through U.S. sportsbook, unlicensed bookmakers, in squares pools and with friends and family.
Here are how the Super Bowl betting figures have grown, according to the survey results, since 2019, the first year since legal betting began spreading across the nation:
2024 -- 68 million adults, $23.1 billion bet.
2023 -- 50.4 million adults, $16 billion bet.
2022 -- 31.4 million adults, $7.61 billion.
2021 -- 23.2 million adults, $4.3 billion.
2020 -- 26 million adults, $6.8 billion.
2019 -- 22.7 million adults, $6.0 billion.
A bettor in Nevada with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $500 bet on the Chiefs to beat the 49ers by the exact score of 31-20 at 300-1. If successful, the bet would pay a net $150,000.
Notes from Wednesday
-- The most popular single-game parlay on the Super Bowl at Caesars Sportsbook is a four-legger featuring Chiefs money line, Patrick Mahomes 2-plus passing touchdowns, Travis Kelce anytime touchdown and Kelce over 100 yards receiving.
-- As of Wednesday, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey had attracted more bets to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl than any other player at BetRivers sportsbooks, but it's close with Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. According to a release from BetRivers, McCaffrey has attracted 0.1% more anytime touchdown bets than Kelce.
-- A bettor in Michigan with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $2,000 bet on 49ers pass-rusher Chase Young to be named Super Bowl MVP at 300-1 odds. If Young takes down the honor, the bettor would win a net $600,000.
Movement on Coin toss and Halftime show
We have a public favorite in the coin toss... and it's not the side that never fails: Heads has attracted 54% of the tickets and 55% of the handle at BetMGM. Meanwhile, for "Which team will win the coin toss?" the 49ers have gotten 55% of the bets and only 48% of the handle. Of course, because the chances of either side being correct are exactly 50%, the odds have remained -105 on both sides for both wagers.
Bettors north of the border have spoken and forced significant line changes on the First Song Performed for Usher's halftime show. After opening at +800, ranking fifth in the odds, 29% of bets and 21% of the money is on "OMG" at BetMGM, moving the line down to +150, the biggest move of any song. However, the current favorite is "My Way" (+100) after at least one huge money bet gave the 1998 hit a whopping 66% of the handle on just 12% of tickets. Reminder: BetMGM and other legal sportsbooks are only offering this wager in Ontario, Canada.
The Taylor Swift Effect is real: At Caesars, Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105) has more wagers than the 49ers moneyline and spread combined. This is certainly developing into a Delicate situation for the books.
Written by Doug Greenberg
Popular prop bets at ESPN BET
Travis Kelce to score a touchdown (Even) is the most popular straight prop and the second-most popular prop included in Parlay+ betting slips at ESPN BET, trailing only Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown (-230). The second-most popular straight prop is Deebo Samuel over 2.5 rushing attempts (-155), which, by virtue of opening at +105, has seen the biggest line movement of any prop at the sportsbook.
Other popular straight prop bets include Brock Purdy over 0.5 total interceptions (-115), Deebo Samuel to score a touchdown (+160), and Isiah Pacheco to score a touchdown (-120), with the latter two also serving as popular Parlay+ plays, along with Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 total passing TDs (-150).
For the full game, ESPN BET has 70% of spread bets on the Chiefs and 71% of total bets on over 47.5 points (-110).
Betting on the QBs
Bettors are expecting a big game from Patrick Mahomes. The over on Mahomes' passing touchdowns (1.5 -160o) and rushing yards (26.5 -120u) have each attracted extremely lopsided early action at BetMGM: 99% of the money is on the over on passing TDs and 97% of the money is on the over on his rushing yards.
The most-lopsided player prop on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy as of Tuesday at BetMGM was on his interceptions: 99% of the money wagered is on Purdy to throw over 0.5 interceptions in the Super Bowl.
What a newbie Vegas bookie learned about making Super Bowl prop odds
The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas posts its giant suite of Super Bowl prop bets on Thursdays, 10 days ahead of the Super Bowl and annually attracts a line of a few dozen wise guys who wait their turn to place up to two $2,000 limit wagers before returning to the back of the line.
"The people betting on Thursday obviously look at things a little differently than the public," said Chase Michaelson, who last week worked his way through SuperBook's process of creating odds on hundreds of Super Bowl prop for the second time since joining company.
After attending Michigan State, Michaelson, 26, landed in Las Vegas toward the end of the pandemic and joined the SuperBook oddsmaking staff in 2021. Last year's Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs was his first helping make props at the SuperBook.
"The biggest thing that I would say I learned is to look beyond the obvious," Michaelson said.
This year, the SuperBook posted its opening prop odds a few hours earlier than normal to accommodate local TV. The change in start time coincided with the second-half of a slew of early college basketball games going to halftime, requiring oddsmakers to post lines for the second half. At the same time, the wise guys were stepping up to the counter, firing aways $2,000 limit bets on everything from Deebo Samuel over receptions and yards to over on 3.5 combined field goals.
"It was a little chaotic because the bets are flying in on that stuff at the same time," Michaelson said. "I think I typed in the wrong thing on something but realized it quickly." Michaelson said the limit bettors bet over 74.5 on the combined yardages of all touchdowns scores in the Super Bowl, moving the number to 78.5.
"That's a pretty significant move on something like that," he said. "That was a pretty sharp group on that."
Written by David Purdum
Interest in underdog Orange
"Purple" has separated itself as the clear-but favorite to be the color of Gatorade dumping on the winning coach, but underdog "Orange" was attracting from bettors. Orange had attracted 33% of the money wagered on the prop as of Monday at BetMGM, more than Purple, Blue and Clear/Water combined. You can wager on there not being a Gatorade Bath at 20-1.
TD Favorite
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is around -225 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, the shortest odds of any player, but that's actually longer than he's been in each of his previous six games. McCaffrey had been an odds-on favorite of at least -300 to score touchdowns in previous six games. He has scored a TD in 15 of his last 18 games.
Champs as public dogs
A release from sportsbook BetRivers on Monday leads off with "The betting public has spoken, and it is saying "Chiefs" loud and clear. The sportsbook reported 73% of the bets and 76% of the point spread money that had been placed entering Monday morning was on Kansas City.
Super Bowl LVIII
Sunday, Feb. 11, 6 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Consensus point spread and total: 49ers -2, 47.5
Money line: San Francisco -130/Kansas City +110
Action report: The early betting has been lopsided on the underdog Chiefs, with BetMGM, DraftKings, ESPN BET and FanDuel each reporting 71-76% of the spread bets on Kansas City.
Action on the money line also is lopsided, with around 85% of the bets on Kansas City as of Feb. 2.
Saturday update: After an initial move toward the Chiefs, the Super Bowl point spread has been ticking back up toward the favored 49ers. The SuperBook on Saturday bumped the line up to San Francisco -2.5.
Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk for the SuperBook, told ESPN an accumulation of bets on the 49ers prompted the move. "We just want to put it out there, see if anyone wants 2.5 at this time," Sherman said in a text message.
