Clinton up by 12 points over Trump in ABC News tracking poll

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Sunday, October 23, 2016
Clinton up by 12 points over Trump in ABC News tracking poll
Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit lead in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election's legitimacy.

WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit lead in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election's legitimacy.

Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump's response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who'd initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.

RELATED: See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump's suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton's favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he'd accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent.

The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton's +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he'd accept the election's legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.

RELATED: Gay republicans explain why they're supporting Trump

This inaugural 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,391 adults, including 874 likely voters. This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC's tracking survey later this week.

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who'd preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

Vote preference results among some groups also are striking. Among them:

Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points among women, 55-35 percent. She's gained 12 points (and Trump's lost 16) from mid-October among non-college-educated white women, some of whom initially seemed to rally to Trump after disclosure of the videotape.

Clinton has doubled her lead to 32 points, 62-30 percent, among college-educated white women, a group that's particularly critical of his response to questions about his sexual conduct. (Seventy-six percent disapprove, 67 percent strongly.)

RELATED: Clinton fires back at Trump's Gettysburg Address, threat to sue accusers

That said, Clinton's also ahead numerically (albeit not significantly) among men, 44-41 percent, a first in ABC News and ABC/Post polling.

Trump is just +4 among whites overall, 47-43 percent, a group Mitt Romney won by 20 points in 2012. Broad success among whites is critical for any Republican candidate; nonwhites, a reliably Democratic group, favor Clinton by 54 points, 68-14 percent.

Trump is laying out an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days as president but pointedly noting that he will find time to sue the numerous women who have accused him of groping and other unwanted sexual behavior.

"All of these liars will be sued once the election is over," Trump said Saturday during an event near the Civil War battlefield of Gettysburg that was meant to be policy-driven. He added: "I look so forward to doing that."

Asked about Trump's remarks, Clinton told reporters between rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia that she was done responding to what her Republican opponent is saying as Election Day nears and would instead focus on helping elect other Democrats.

Yet even as Clinton appeared to be strengthening her lead, her campaign was careful not to declare premature victory.

"We don't want to get ahead of our skis here," Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Sunday. He said the "battleground states" where both candidates are campaigning hardest "are called that for a reason."

Trump's campaign, too, took a cautious approach while acknowledging the Republican has been trailing Clinton in the polls. Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway laid out a path to the requisite 270 electoral votes that goes through make-or-break states Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

"We're not giving up. We know we can win this," Conway said.

A day earlier, Clinton attacked Pennsylvania's Republican senator, Pat Toomey, saying in Pittsburgh that he has refused to "stand up" to Trump as she praised his Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty. Noting Trump's comments about Mexican immigrants and his attacks on a Muslim-American military family, she said of Toomey: "If he doesn't have the courage to stand up to Donald Trump after all of this, then can you be sure that he will stand up for you when it counts?"

Toomey spokesman Ted Kwong said Clinton's comments highlight McGinty's lack of independence.

"Today is just further proof that hyper-partisan, ethically challenged Katie McGinty will be a rubber stamp for everything Hillary Clinton wants to do in Washington," he said. "Pat Toomey has been, and will continue to be, an independent leader in the Senate on issues ranging from gun safety to ending Wall Street bailouts."

Clinton rejected Trump's allegation, offered without evidence, that the dozen or so women who have come forward are being prompted by her campaign or the Democratic National Committee. The accusers emerged after the former reality TV star boasted of kissing women and groping their genitals without their consent. On Saturday, an adult film actress said the billionaire kissed her and two other women on the lips "without asking for permission" when they met him after a golf tournament in 2006.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

For full election coverage, click here.