Tough votes on Trump Cabinet picks could pose big risks for midterm Senate candidates

Lawmakers running for reelection loathe tough votes. And for senators up in purple states in two years, those tough votes are coming early.

President-elect Donald Trump is moving at a lightning pace to stock up his administration, mixing in conventional picks like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state with controversial moves like putting up Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for health and human services secretary. For frontline senators who hold the key to the next Senate majority, navigating their confirmations will be a minefield.

Republicans will be defending the seats of North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis and Maine Sen. Susan Collins, while Democrats will be working to protect Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Michigan Sen. Gary Peters. Their confirmation votes for Trump's Cabinet picks offer a chance to prove bipartisan bona fides, but backing a nominee who is too controversial risks opening them up to attack in races that could be decided by razor-thin margins.

"If they're smart, then it's a major factor. The midterms are still a ways off. Generally, voters have short attention spans, and so it's debatable how much of this stuff they're going to remember. But I think it's uniquely important for people who may take heat from the right," said one GOP strategist.

Some of Trump's nominees are not anticipated to run into significant roadblocks.

Rubio has already received praise from some Democratic senators, and members of the chamber are often given some degree of deference when facing confirmation to Cabinet positions. Waltz and Ratcliffe may face tighter margins than Rubio but are also considered to be among Trump's more conventional picks.

But Gaetz and Kennedy, along with Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick to be director of national intelligence, and Fox News host Pete Hegseth, named to run the Pentagon, will likely enjoy no Democratic support at all. With Republicans winning a maximum of 53 Senate seats this month, that leaves their margin for error small if they hope to be confirmed.

Already, Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski have sounded skeptical notes about some of Trump's choices, and other Republicans, including Tillis, have remained noncommittal.

The pressure will be on for Republicans, though.

Trump won a comprehensive victory, and before he announced his more controversial cabinet picks, Republicans on Capitol Hill were touting the need for unity as they prepared to take over a unified government in January.

Collins is considered to be in a league of her own, sources said. A senior Republican who's likely one of the few candidates, if not the only one, who can win her state, she's expected to have especially wide latitude to oppose a candidate she deems unfit.

And with a base in such lockstep with Trump, any defiance from other GOP lawmakers could trigger outrage from the famously mercurial president-elect -- fury that could in turn result in a primary challenge, and not just for swing-staters like Tillis.

At the same time, supporting a controversial nominee who pushes the envelope too far once confirmed risks becoming a general election issue.

"There will be Trump voters who remember how Republican senators handle these nominations. And so, I do think that for senators who are up this cycle, the base is watching how they handle Trump's nominees," the Republican strategist said.

"Any of these other safe-state Republicans who are in cycle, it's within Trump's power to cause problems for them on the right, if he chooses to," the person added.

Still, underscoring the catch-22, any votes for nominees deemed too controversial could end up in ads from their ultimate Democratic opponents labeling them a "rubber stamp" for Trump, the source warned.

The pressure is on for House members, too.

House members will not have a vote in the confirmation process, but they will inevitably field a slate of questions about nominees like Gaetz. Those running in purple districts could opt to punt, noting their lack of a vote, or they could knock the more controversial contenders, also risking blowback from Trump.

"I would try and push it to the Senate first and see if you get away with that. And if you don't get away with that, then I would strongly advise to stand by your principles and not to end up going down a path for someone else that you didn't choose for yourself," said William O'Reilly, a GOP strategist in New York, home to many endangered House Republicans. "Loyalty goes so far, the public is looking for legislators that have a little bit of backbone and common sense."

Democrats are also in a pickle of their own.

Ossoff and Peters are Senate Democrats' top frontline members up in 2026. Offering support to some of Trump's picks like Rubio, Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., for national security adviser and former Rep. John Ratcliffe, R-Texas, for CIA director, could bolster their bipartisan bona fides. But going too far risks turning off Democrats, a major risk when they'll need every single supporter energized in states Trump won this month.

"Waltz, Ratcliffe and Rubio, if you're Ossoff and you vote for them, independent voters see you're a straight shooter, and he can claim he's bipartisan, because he was," said one Georgia Democratic strategist. "And then he says, 'look, I voted for everybody except Gabbard on his national security team.'"

To be certain, there are several other factors at play across the key midterm races. Incumbents' opponents are far from finalized, the midterms will take place almost two years after confirmation votes start in January, and some nominees might not even make it to a vote.

But already, the knives are out.

"President Trump and JD Vance are going to be running the Senate," Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a Trump ally, said on Fox Business this week. "If you want to get in the way, fine. But we're gonna try to get you out of the Senate, too, if you try to do that."