Retail economists say consumer sentiment hard to predict this holiday season

WALNUT CREEK, Calif. (KGO) -- It's the last shopping week before Christmas. That meant long lines to pay and to park. But with inflation adding to prices, many retail economists are unsure about how consumer sentiment will play out.

At Broadway Plaza in Walnut Creek, many shopper had their bags filled. But some say they are holding back this year.

"I definitely do feel like things have gone up, and everything feels more expensive," says Peyton Annoni, who is back from college and visiting her parents for the holidays.

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"For next year, we never know what is going to happen. We don't know if we are going to have another pandemic or something, inflation, or another thing will come up. So, we are definitely saving," explains Sandra Radcliff, who lives in Albany.

Retail stocks tanked across the board on Thursday, after a worse than expected Nov. retail sales report was released.

Inflation may be on most people's mind, but the National Retail Federation still predicts holiday sales in Nov. and Dec. will increase 6 to 8% from last year.

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The supply chains have generally stabilized. The labor market is strong. But economists says retailers are bracing to lose out on spending as more people go on trips, and search for experiences over shopping.

"I am saving for a car. So, this year, Christmas might be a little tight," says Adalyn Rivera, a Hayward resident.

Many retail economists seem unsure about how retail sales will play out. But one thing that many are sure about is that shoppers will hold out for a bargain.

"I love a good deal. I love a discount. And I love coupons!" says Fairfield resident John Robinson, Jr., with a laugh.

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