NFL Week 11 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we've got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs' trip to Buffalo. It all culminates with a "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET

MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE

CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN

SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC

HOU-DAL

Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18

Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

Ravens (7-3) at Steelers (7-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to watch: In his past eight games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. But the Steelers have contained Jackson more than any other team. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totaled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times. -- Jamison Hensley

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers are finally opening AFC North play, and they'll do it with an offense that could give the Ravens fits. With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Ravens could be without safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle). -- Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.

Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record at least two quarterback hits. He rattled off five straight games with a quarterback hit to start the season but hasn't had one since Week 5. He's playing more, and his pass rush win rate is a strong 12% at defensive tackle -- 11th best at the position. -- Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is undeniable. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. He faces a Ravens defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Ravens 33, Steelers 30

Moody's pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27

Walder's pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 22

FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? ... Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn't want him back

Packers (6-3) at Bears (4-5)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to watch: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears. A loss Sunday would end not only that streak but also another one: The Packers have not started 0-3 in division play since 2005, but they already have lost to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division start is the second-longest active streak behind the Patriots, who haven't started 0-3 in division play since 1994. -- Rob Demovsky

Bears storyline to watch: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired Tuesday, and will call plays for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives without a touchdown. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to display more "creativity" after the Bears stumbled during a three-game losing streak during which they rank dead last in points (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North games under Eberflus, whose .167 win percentage in division play is the worst in the NFL since 2022. -- Courtney Cronin

Stat to know:QuarterbackJordan Lovehas thrown an interception in seven straight games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I'm betting changing to Brown as the offensive playcaller will help spark the offense -- which surely has the talent to be better than it has been. -- Walder

Injuries: Packers | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Packers tight end Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. What stands out is his ability to gain yards after the catch, where he leads the Packers. Kraft has a favorable matchup facing a Bears defense that allows the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Packers 24, Bears 15

Moody's pick: Packers 24, Bears 16

Walder's pick: Packers 27, Bears 20

FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings 'different dynamic' to Packers' backfield ... QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles ... OC Waldron fired: What's next for Bears, QB Williams

Jaguars (2-8) at Lions (8-1)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second start for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a game in which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over three times and led the Jaguars to just 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest total in franchise history) in a loss to Minnesota. One thing that could help is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. involved again. He has had four catches for 34 yards the past two weeks. -- Mike DiRocco

Lions storyline to watch: New defensive lineman Za'Darius Smith is expected to make his Lions debut against Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland last week. Smith was not activated last Sunday to allow him to get acclimated to the organization, but he's ready to go this week. The Lions aren't putting pressure on him to fill the role of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to repair his fractured tibia and fibula, but to elevate the defense in his own way. "I'm not going to be looking at the stats," coach Dan Campbell said. "I just want to know that he's doing his job and he's as productive as he can be in that." -- Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score games (decided by eight or fewer points). That's the most such losses in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will record at least 11 total tackles. Campbell ranks third among all players in run stop win rate (48.6%) and is recording a tackle or assist on 25% of opponent run plays, a very high rate. -- Walder

Injuries: Jaguars | Lions

Fantasy X factor: Lions running back David Montgomery. He's averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy points per game, making him a reliable option. Also, the Jaguars' defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect Montgomery to see plenty of action. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the under on their win total (8.5) with a loss. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 14

Moody's pick: Lions 34, Jaguars 17

Walder's pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 13

FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by an average of 16.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence,hope for post-bye return ... Lions TE LaPorta day-to-day with shoulder injury ... Lions' last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

Vikings (7-2) at Titans (2-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: Sunday's game will be the Vikings' third consecutive AFC South matchup. They've won the first two, against the Colts and Jaguars, despite quarterback Sam Darnoldcommitting three turnovers in each game. But their defense has forced five turnovers during that stretch, and it will be primed to generate more against a Titans offense that has committed 17 this season, tied for the third most in the league. -- Kevin Seifert

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are well aware of the Vikings' tenacious defense and how it confuses quarterbacks. Considering the offensive line issues and quarterback Will Levis' inexperience, it would seem as if Tennessee is at a major disadvantage. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz said they want to make it easier for Levis to see the answers to the blitz early in the play and show Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they have counters to his extensive blitz package. -- Turron Davenport

Stat to know:Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight games without a receiving touchdown, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight games without a touchdown reception.

Bold prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will record a sack. Though he has only one sack in his past five games,Landry has a 0.74-second pass rush get-off, the fifth fastest of any player with at least 100 pass rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken four sacks in three of his past five games. -- Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy points in Week 10 against a tough Chargers defense was a season high. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or more targets in three straight games and should continue to shine against the Vikings. Minnesota's defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Vikings 28, Titans 14

Moody's pick: Viking 24, Titans 13

Walder's pick: Vikings 22, Titans 16

FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by an average of 6.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: