Data vs. reality: Car break-ins down 50% in Oakland, police say; here's a look at numbers
OAKLAND, Calif. (KGO) -- Car break-ins have long frustrated drivers across the Bay Area. But data reveals a surprising shift: reported vehicle burglaries are down significantly in Oakland - by more than 50% compared to the previous year.
Still, some residents are skeptical.
"I don't trust the numbers that are reported," said Oakland driver Brian Bourke. "I think it happens a lot more than people report."
According to data analyzed by ABC7's data team, there were nearly 15,000 reported car break-ins in Oakland in 2023---the highest number since 2012. After reaching out to a dozen auto glass repair shops in the city, that number seemed to ring true.
"It became a regular occurrence that year," said James Serwa, owner of Glass on the Move. "It was a revolving door in here. We'd have cars lined up all day long, appointments one after another, every day for months."
However, in 2024, the numbers tell a different story. Break-in reports dropped by more than half, marking the second-lowest figure in a decade - trailing only 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic first broke.
"Starting in September, we saw a real drop-off," Serwa said. "They really dropped off the radar."
MORE: San Francisco car break-ins at historic 22-year low. But does the data match reality?
While Oakland police declined to comment for this story, San Francisco Police Chief Bill Scott spoke to ABC7 News anchor Dion Lim on Monday and attributed a similar decline in his city to increased technology use, including bait cars, drones, and the passage of Proposition E which expanded law enforcement's access to crime-fighting technology.
"Better access to video surveillance, period, across the board, has been significant in allowing us to work more effectively," Chief Scott said.
MORE: Oakland police see rise in smash-and-grab suspects targeting people sitting in their cars
Back in Oakland's Lakeview District, which has experienced break-ins in the past- residents say they've noticed a difference.
"The street is much better than it was," said Johannes Grohmann. "I think we're on the right track."
For business owners like Serwa, the downturn in break-ins may mean fewer customers - but he's not complaining.
"I hope it's good for the city," he said. "It's not for us... but it's OK in the long run."
INTERACTIVE: Take a look at the ABC7 Neighborhood Safety Tracker
