Stanford studies alternative COVID-19 vaccine dosage strategies to curb current surge
STANFORD, Calif. (KGO) -- A new study from Stanford is adding weight to the idea of front loading shipments of COVID-19 vaccine now to attack the current surge of cases.
Professor Joshua Salomon, Ph.D. and his colleagues at Stanford crunched the numbers on the government's current strategy for shipping COVID-19 vaccines to individual states.
That policy takes into account that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses spaced several weeks apart.
He says the so-called "fixed model" calls for holding roughly 50 percent of the available doses for each cycle in reserve -- That's to assure that enough second doses are readily available after a three-week period in case of a supply disruption.
"So I think the current scheme is really putting a premium on avoiding that worst case scenario of a vaccine supply. But the cost of that is we're not making available as many vaccinations as possible," says Professor Salomon.
He believes fighting the current surge in COVID-19 deaths could call for front-loading the number of vaccine doses being released instead.
An alternative flexible model calls for dropping the amount of reserve doses down to just 10 percent, and releasing the rest now while the virus is spiking, then making up the difference in later cycles.
The Stanford team believes the adjustment could prevent between 23 percent to 29 percent more new COVID-19 cases in the near term.
CALCULATOR: Find out how many people may get a COVID-19 vaccine before you
"So for lots of reasons this is an incredibly dangerous and critical time. And so we're looking at this two-month period and asking 'how can we maximize the potential benefit of the available doses that we have,'" he explains.
The study examined trial data from the Pfizer vaccine, which is a little more than 50 percent effective with just the first dose. Professor Salomon says the goal would still be to get patients a second dose within the prescribed time frame, while trying to knock down the current spike in cases.
If you have a question or comment about the coronavirus pandemic, submit yours via the form below or here.
Get the latest news, information and videos about the novel coronavirus pandemic here
RELATED STORIES & VIDEOS:
- From COVID-19 to Black Lives Matter, these 13 people defined the Bay Area in 2020
- Map: CA counties that can, can't reopen under new rules
- CALCULATOR: Find out how many people may get a COVID-19 vaccine before you
- VIDEO: When will I get the COVID-19 vaccine? We explain who goes 1st
- COVID-19 risk calculator: The safest and most dangerous things to do this holiday season
- Want to get a COVID-19 test in time for the holidays? Here's what you need to know
- Updated number of COVID-19 deaths, cases in Bay Area
- Map shows everywhere you can get a COVID-19 test in the Bay Area
- COVID-19 Diaries: Personal stories of Bay Area residents during pandemic
- California EDD: The most commonly asked questions we get about unemployment and PUA
- Health experts urge flu shots in effort to avoid 'twindemic'
- How to tell the difference between seasonal allergies and coronavirus symptoms
- Here's which mask is better to protect from COVID-19
- First COVID-19 vaccine volunteers in US describe experience as Bay Area launches vaccine trials
- Coronavirus origin: Where did COVID-19 come from?
- What is a COVID-19 genetic, antigen and antibody test?
- What will it take to get a COVID-19 vaccine and how will it be made?
- What does COVID-19 do to your body and why does it spread so easily?
- Here's how shelter in place, stay at home orders can slow spread of COVID-19
- Coronavirus Timeline: Tracking major moments of COVID-19 pandemic in San Francisco Bay Area
- Coronavirus Doctor's Note: Dr. Alok Patel gives his insight into COVID-19 pandemic
