The ominous prediction first appeared Sunday on the "Quakeprediction" Twitter account with the message: "EARTHQUAKE WATCH; 6.0 to 7.0 earthquake likely in California; Most likely in the Salton Sea or Los Angeles area. Sep 29 - Oct 1." There have been numerous subsequent postings, most of which include a countdown to the impending quake. "50 HOUR MAJOR EARTHQUAKE WARNING; 6.0 to 7.0 earthquake likely in S California in the next 50 hrs."
It quickly created a mini-panic through the Twitter universe. Even Dr. Drew got in on the act, retweeting the prediction and adding, "holy crap."
In fact, there were so many tweets on the subject that the USGS felt compelled to send out their own tweet: "Seeing many tweets on quake prediction. Folks, let's set the record straight...no one can predict quakes...no one."
So who is this guy making these bold predictions? His name is Luke Thomas and apparently this isn't the first time he's managed to scare those who believe his claims. On his website, Quakeprediction.com, he claims his forecasts are based on "thermal temperature changes caused by kinetic frictional heating of the tectonic plates."
Thomas provides no information about his own background or expertise on his website, but does state that he is not affiliated with the USGS.
Believe it or not, he was even featured in a CNN report, albeit briefly (watch it here), and local blog SFist labeled him a "quake quack" in one of their stories.
Anyone can post anything on the Internet at any time. So when in doubt, go to a trusted and reputable source on a subject before taking anything you read on the Internet at face value.
By the way, here's the official USGS explanation on earthquake predictions: "Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions. "
