Is overall Oakland crime down? Here's a look at the data

OAKLAND, Calif. (KGO) -- New numbers from the city of Oakland, touted in a press release by Governor Gavin Newsom and mentioned by other city and state leaders, suggest there's been a 33% drop in crime this year. But is that the whole picture?

"We should compare our numbers to a lengthy amount of time. Not just the difference between this year and last year," said Sergeant Huy Nguyen, President of the Oakland Police Officers' Association. "We have to bring our numbers down to a level where our community feels a sense of safety."

The 33% drop in overall city crime is true when looking at year-to-date numbers compared to this time last year. But that includes a California Highway Patrol surge that began in February and doesn't account for seasonal differences. Year-to-date comparisons can also distort percentages when dealing with small numbers.

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Looking at a larger time period of data, when comparing the past 12 months to all of 2023, overall crime is down by 15.8%. When considering the past 12 months versus the annual average for the past three years, overall crime is down by just over 1%.

"What we are seeing is the lowest number of crimes, right now, for the past three years," says Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.

From January to now, OPD says homicides are down 21% compared to this time last year. But when looking at other time periods, the percentage is lower.

For robberies, OPD lists a 5% year-to-date decrease. But when measured against the past 12 months compared to 2023, it's down about 2%. And when looking at the past 12 months compared to the annual average for the past three years, robberies are up over 19%.

"Every time we roll into the beginning of summer, we will see an increase in violent crimes across the city. The increase of sideshows. That is just the norm for us," said Sgt. Nguyen.

He says while the bigger picture shows a small drop in crime, there's still work to be done. He is also concerned by a budget proposal to eliminate upwards of 30 OPD positions due to attrition.

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Still, the mayor argues despite the additional CHP officers, overall crime is trending downward. She says the CHP surge is only one part of a comprehensive strategy. She adds that the cease-fire program, adding more foot patrols and weekly data analysis are all playing a role.

Click here to see more local crime trends with our Neighborhood Safety Tracker.

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