Bay Area surpasses 'summer surge' for most COVID-19 cases of pandemic

ByLiz Kreutz KGO logo

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Bay Area surpasses 'summer surge' for most cases of pandemic

COVID-19 cases are on the rise but up until recently, the Bay Area had not yet surpassed the "summer surge" -- the highest peak of cases during the pandemic. This week, however, that changed.

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- We all know it; COVID-19 cases are on the rise. But up until recently, the Bay Area had not yet surpassed the "summer surge" -- the highest peak of cases during the pandemic. This week, however, that changed and the Bay Area is now seeing more cases than ever before.

So, how does the summer surge compare to the holiday surge we're in now? Just take a look at the numbers.

This graph shows daily cases going back to March. You can see that during the summer surge, the Bay Area as a whole hit a peak on Aug. 13 with a 7-day average of 1,419 new cases per day. Currently, the Bay Area's rolling 7-day average is 1,731 new cases per day and it's growing.

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What about specific counties?

Let's look at Santa Clara County, a hot spot here in the Bay Area. Over the summer, Santa Clara hit a peak on Aug. 23 with a rolling 14-day average of 288 new cases per day. The current average of daily new cases is 456.

Now head up north to Napa County. Their summer peak was on Aug. 2 with a 14-day rolling average of new daily cases at about 25. Their current average of daily new cases in nearly 40.

But not all Bay Area counties have surpassed their summer surge. Marin County, for instance, isn't even close. They had a peak on July 18 of about 152 cases. The current average is just around 27 cases.

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San Francisco is essentially tied. The city had its summer surge peak on Aug. 25 with a 14-day average of 132 new daily cases. Right now, that daily average is 131. So, almost exactly the same.

The bigger problem? There's no sign yet it's turning around. Plus, an increase in cases means more hospitalizations and more people in the ICU.

"The most concerning thing to me is that the ICU needs have gone way up," UCSF's Dr. George Rutherford said. "We do have a couple ICU beds unoccupied, but that's, you know, it will catch up pretty quickly."

As this graph shows, in almost every Bay Area county, hospitalizations are on the rise again, just like they were during the summer surge.

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For Dr. Rutherford, this is the time to hunker down.

"I think by the end of the week we'll see if there's a big bump up from Thanksgiving or if we've managed to turn a corner," he told ABC7 News. "I hope it's the latter, but we just don't know until we know."

See the tracker below to find out how COVID-19 cases are trending in your county.

App users: For a better experience, click here to view the full trend tracker in a new window

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