NFL playoffs divisional round lines: Bills open as home favorites over Chiefs

ByESPN Betting ESPN logo
Friday, January 19, 2024

The divisional round of the NFL Playoffs is set with two games each on Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, the AFC's top-seeded Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans, while the NFC's top-seeded San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers, the first-ever seventh seed to advance to the divisional round.

On Sunday, the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, followed by the Buffalo Bills hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Winners of each game will advance to the conference championship games where they will face off for the right to play in Super Bowl LVIII.

Projections by ESPN'sFootball Power Index (FPI). Odds by ESPN BET.

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Money Line: Houston Texans (+320); Baltimore Ravens (-400)

Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5

FPI favorite: Ravens by 12.8 (81.7% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

  • The Ravens are 11-6 ATS this season (unders: 9-8). The Texans are 10-8 ATS this season (unders: 11-7).
  • Lamar Jackson is 3-0 ATS in his career against the Texans.
  • The Texans have covered four straight games as a road underdog (4-1 ATS this season). They are 7-3 ATS overall as underdogs this season (6-4 outright).
  • All four Lamar Jackson playoff starts have gone under the total. Jackson is 1-3 outright and ATS in the playoffs, including 1-2 outright as a favorite.
  • Rookie quarterbacks are 5-1 ATS in their past six divisional round games (since 2008), including 4-0 ATS as underdogs in that span (2-2 outright).
  • The Texans have covered three straight games and four of their past five.
  • The Ravens are 9-5 ATS as favorites this season (4-1 ATS in past five).
  • The Ravens are 13-7 ATS in the playoffs under John Harbaugh (9-3 ATS in past 12 playoff games).

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Money Line: Green Bay Packers (+360); San Francisco 49ers (-450)

Total: 50.5; Opened: 50.5

FPI favorite: 49ers by 11.2 (78.6% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

  • The Packers are 11-7 ATS this season (overs: 11-7). The 49ers are 9-8 ATS this season (overs: 10-7).
  • The Packers are 21-8 ATS and 17-12 outright as underdogs under Matt LaFleur including playoffs.
  • The Packers have won four straight games outright as underdogs, their longest underdog win streak since 2011-12.
  • The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in playoff games under Kyle Shanahan, including 4-0 ATS as favorites.
  • Six straight Packers road games have gone over the total (overs: 8-2 in Packers road games this season).
  • The Packers have covered three straight games. Seven of their past eight games have gone over the total.

Ford Field, Detroit

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250); Detroit Lions (-300)

Total: 48.5; Opened: 48.5

FPI favorite: Lions by 4.5 (62.5% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

  • Both teams are 12-6 ATS this season, tied for the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers games, while overs are 11-7 in Lions games.
  • The Lions beat the Buccaneers 20-6 as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 6 (under 42.5).
  • Since Nevada legalized sports betting in 1949, the Lions' largest favorite role in a playoff game is 4 points (-4 in 1970 divisional round at Cowboys, lost 5-0). They open as 6-point favorites against the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. They are 9-3 ATS as underdogs.
  • The Lions are 1-7-1 ATS in playoffs games since 1993.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their past six games. Four straight Buccaneers games have gone under the total.
  • The Buccaneers have won four straight games outright as underdogs, one shy of the longest win streak in franchise history (five straight in 1979).
  • The Lions are 35-17 ATS in three seasons under Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL in that span. They are 13-7 ATS as favorites under Campbell. Campbell is 39-25 ATS in his career overall, which is the best mark of any coach since the 1970 merger (minimum three seasons).
  • Baker Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in his career in the playoffs. Jared Goff is 2-4 ATS in his playoff career.
  • The Lions did not cover in their wild-card win over the Rams. Teams that reached the divisional round after not covering their wild-card matchup are 14-6-1 ATS in the divisional round.

Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (+135); Buffalo Bills (-155)

Total: 45.5; Opened: 45.5

FPI favorite: Bills by 2.3 (56.6% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

  • The Chiefs are 10-8 ATS this season (unders: 12-6). The Bills are 8-10 ATS this season (unders: 11-7).
  • The Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17 in Week 14 as 1.5-point road underdogs (under 49.5).
  • Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 10 times in his career entering the divisional round. He is 7-3 outright and 8-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss as an underdog in Mahomes' career was Week 6 last season at home against the Bills. Mahomes is 8-0-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.
  • Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 7-2 ATS when he is not at least a seven-point favorite. Josh Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff career.
  • Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS in his career when the line is between +3 and -3.
  • The Chiefs have covered three straight games. Four straight Chiefs games have gone under the total.
  • This is the seventh meeting between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. They are both 3-3 ATS with overs and unders going 3-3. The average over/under in the first six meetings was 54.1, with the lowest total coming in their Week 14 matchup (49.5). Mahomes covered both playoff meetings, both at home.

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