Interactive COVID-19 map shows chance someone has virus near you

ByAlix Martichoux KGO logo
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Interactive map shows the chance someone has COVID-19 near you
In almost every Bay Area county, there's about a 1 in 3 chance that if you were to gather with a group of 25 people, at least one person would have COVID-19.

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- An interactive map created by researchers at Georgia Tech lets you explore the risk of encountering the coronavirus in your community.

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The map essentially assesses the risk of attending an event or mingling with a group of people. It allows you to zoom into your county and also adjust the event size.

For example, if you zoom into San Francisco and select a group size of 100 people, the risk level is 81%. That means there's an 81% chance that if you were to go to a wedding of 100 people in San Francisco, at least one person there would have COVID-19.

But no one in the Bay Area is attending gatherings that large (at least we hope not), so let's dial that number down a little bit. In a gathering of 10 people in San Francisco - smaller than the "social bubble" recommended size of 12 people, by the way - the chance that at least one person is positive for COVID-19 is 15%, according to the map. In Marin County, it's substantially higher: 43%.

(Note: The map defaults to a group size of 100. Adjust the group size by using the slider in the map's left rail. If the map times out, just refresh this page.)

It's not surprising that larger gatherings would lead to a higher risk. In Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Mateo, Sonoma and Santa Cruz counties, for example, there's a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a group of 25 random people would have a COVID-positive person.

You may want to consider that statistic before planning your next social gathering. Outbreaks around the Bay Area have been linked back to extended family gatherings.

RELATED: These Bay Area counties allow social bubbles and small gatherings

Zoom in and adjust the map above to see the risk of socializing in your county.

See the full map and data set here.

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It's widely known that COVID-19 is contagious and can be transmitted through droplets from coughing, sneezing and talking in close proximity to others.

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