How far is the US from herd immunity? It's closer than you may think
SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- Nearly 7 million coronavirus vaccine doses have been shipped across California - 67% have been used to date. So how long will it take at our current pace to get to herd immunity?
Experts predict it could be close to seven years for the world to reach herd immunity, according to Bloomberg's vaccine tracker. For the United States, it's possible it could be a year away.
VACCINE TRACKER: Here's how CA is doing, when you can get a coronavirus vaccine
The U.S. is administering around 1.4 million doses per day. At that pace, it's projected the nation will reach herd immunity with at least 70 to 80 percent of the population vaccinated just in time to ring in the start of 2022.
That's 11 months away.
ABC7 consulted Stanford Infectious Disease physician Dean Winslow.
"Do you agree with that prediction?" ABC7's Stephanie Sierra asked.
"I do," Winslow said. "That's very doable based on the fact we need to have close to 300 million immunized before we can get to that magic 75% of the population."
VIDEO: Biden administration to deploy 1,100 troops to help COVID vaccination efforts
UCSF lead epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford predicts it will happen even sooner.
"I think we may see it a bit earlier," Rutherford said. "Which would be a combination of vaccine acquired immunity and naturally acquired immunity."
"How soon?" Sierra asked.
"We may see it by the time we start going back to school by late August, something like that," he said.
Worldwide it's a different story.
RELATED: Vaccine progress gives hope in fight against COVID, experts encouraged
Currently, 4.6 million COVID-19 vaccine doses are being administered globally per day, according to Bloomberg's tracker. Experts suggest at that pace it will take close to seven years to get to herd immunity worldwide, taking into consideration over evolving variants.
"The British variant is totally susceptible to the vaccine," Rutherford pointed out. "The others, the South African, the Brazilian one maybe somewhat less so how is that going to fit into this whole puzzle?"
The good news is California is making steady progress.
ABC7's data analysis found the average number of doses administered per day in California have nearly doubled in the past few weeks. In mid-January, around 87,207 doses were administered per day. This week, around 173,763 doses were administered per day.
ABC7's Lindsey Feingold contributed to this report.
If you have a question or comment about the COVID-19 vaccine, submit via the form below or here.
Get the latest news, information and videos about the novel coronavirus pandemic here RELATED STORIES & VIDEOS:
- From COVID-19 to Black Lives Matter, these 13 people defined the Bay Area in 2020
- Map: CA counties that can, can't reopen under new rules
- CALCULATOR: Find out how many people may get a COVID-19 vaccine before you
- VIDEO: When will I get the COVID-19 vaccine? We explain who goes 1st
- COVID-19 risk calculator: The safest and most dangerous things to do this holiday season
- Want to get a COVID-19 test in time for the holidays? Here's what you need to know
- Updated number of COVID-19 deaths, cases in Bay Area
- Map shows everywhere you can get a COVID-19 test in the Bay Area
- COVID-19 Diaries: Personal stories of Bay Area residents during pandemic
- California EDD: The most commonly asked questions we get about unemployment and PUA
- Health experts urge flu shots in effort to avoid 'twindemic'
- How to tell the difference between seasonal allergies and coronavirus symptoms
- Here's which mask is better to protect from COVID-19
- First COVID-19 vaccine volunteers in US describe experience as Bay Area launches vaccine trials
- Coronavirus origin: Where did COVID-19 come from?
- What is a COVID-19 genetic, antigen and antibody test?
- What will it take to get a COVID-19 vaccine and how will it be made?
- What does COVID-19 do to your body and why does it spread so easily?
- Here's how shelter in place, stay at home orders can slow spread of COVID-19
- Coronavirus Timeline: Tracking major moments of COVID-19 pandemic in San Francisco Bay Area
- Coronavirus Doctor's Note: Dr. Alok Patel gives his insight into COVID-19 pandemic
