2024 hurricane season predictions: AccuWeather predicts weather could be 'explosive'

ByNick Natario KTRK logo
Thursday, March 28, 2024
AccuWeather says number of named storms could be above average
It's not the time to panic but to prepare. That's what AccuWeather meteorologists say about its 2024 hurricane forecast.

HOUSTON -- AccuWeather released its 2024 hurricane outlook forecast, showing this could be an explosive year.

Two dozen named storms predicted, well above historical average

What could be lurking in the Gulf of Mexico this summer has AccuWeather meteorologists raising the alarm.

"AccuWeather hurricane experts have serious and growing concerns about what can become a supercharged hurricane season this year," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

AccuWeather's hurricane forecast shows there could be as many as 25 named storms, upward of 12 hurricanes, and as many as seven strong hurricanes. It also predicts that upwards of six hurricanes could directly hit the United States.

All of those numbers are above the average from the last 30 years. In Southeast Texas, there's even more worry.

"We have a significant concern of a greater than historic average risks for tropical storms and hurricanes along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines," Porter said.

The ingredients of an active season

Porter said that the warm water in the Gulf and the switch to a La Niña could create the recipe for storms along the Texas coast.

"We do not want people to panic," Porter said. "We want them to be prepared and informed."

ABC Houston affiliate KTRK Chief Meteorologist Travis Herzog agrees the recipe for a busy season is there.

"I am concerned that we are going to see not only a large number of storms, but potentially a large number of intense hurricanes, and there will likely be United States landfalls," Herzog said.

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Last year, AccuWeather predicted as many as 15 named storms. There ended up being even more, but it didn't mean they caused damage to the United States.

"We had 19 named storms last year. But many of those storms were out over the open Atlantic," Porter said. "There were concerns to shipping interests, but not very much land areas."

How hurricane forecasting changed since Harvey hit Houston

After Hurricane Harvey hit Houston in August 2017, it's been relatively quiet in Southeast Texas over the past few years.

Herzog said if a storm were to approach this year, it could be different because the Gulf of Mexico waters are so warm.

"We've seen a particular concern with what we call these rapidly intensifying hurricanes," Herzog explained. "Where they go from a tropical storm to a category three, four or five three days out."

Because of this, meteorologists said it's more crucial than ever to prepare well before hurricane season begins on June 1.

"A little bit of advanced planning early in the year, before the risks arrive, goes a long way to being better prepared," Porter said. "Then, you're not panicking when there is a risk. You're executing the plan that you have."

AccuWeather released its forecast, but there will be others. The National Hurricane Center will give its 2024 forecasted figures around Memorial Day.

"What the (National Hurricane Center) does is they say, 'We think there's a 70% chance there will be this range of storms,' and they stop right there," Herzog said. "What AccuWeather does is they take it a step further - they not only say they think there will be this many storms, but they say they think this many will hit the United States.